Geoffrey Moore’s Chasm/Tornado/Bowling Alley theories are good on this, also Everett Rogers on Diffusion of Innovations
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Moore gets at it a bit with complex systems vs. volume ops in dealing with darwin, but doesn't directly address this point. Not familiar with what Rogers has to say on this.
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exactly, which becomes a broad update cycle: the lifespan of X tech is 7 years, and when that's up we'll definitely switch to Y tech, but we're just waiting for the previous investment to finish. everyone gets to the 7 years roughly at the same time, everyone switches en masse
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Sounds plausible, but hard to prove I think because individual companies adopt at different times, depending on when they bought the last thing, so I feel like diffusion looks slower.
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True. PoCs analog to product market fit maybe
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