Conversation

Can you recommend an overview of everything wrong with probabilistic epistemology? I haven’t found one. There’s lots of papers that say “this particular objection is fatal, so why don’t you guys stop pretending,” but maybe no compendium of those?
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Lots of people understand that probabilism is wrong. And, lots of people write about how it is wrong. What seems missing is a comprehensive list of all the ways it’s wrong.
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I think no one has done that because there’s like 20 fatal defects, and if you want to argue against it, it seems like one conclusive argument should be sufficient. Who wants to comb the literature to find another 19?
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Hmm I’d say crippling but not fatal. Probabilism works well enough, in enough situations that it’s not wrong enough to fix until something big goes wrong. It’s mathematized superstition in a way, since by construction it stops short of including a causation metaphysics
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Probabilistic *methods* can work very well, *if* you understand the domain well enough to spply them effectively. By “probabilism” I mean the claim that the framework is universally applicable.
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Yeah I got that. It might also be isomorphic to AGI. There seem to be 2 kinds. Wink-and-nudge sociopath probabilists who know what they’re doing and living dangerously setting up others for taking the fall, and naive/clueless ones who genuinely don’t get the risk.