With @pullano_giulia @laura_didom @chiaresabbatini @eugeValdano PY Boëlle, Reseau Sentinelles, @GrippeNet @santeprevention @Inserm @Sorbonne_Univ_ @MedecineSU @reacting_fr @RECOVER_EUROPE @MOOD_H2020
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I’m more than proud of this work: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-03095-6 …. A successful collaboration between actors of surveillance, public health professionals, crowdsourced surveillance team, mathematical + statistical modelers to assess the performance of #COVID19 testing strategy in France.
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Synthesizing virological + crowdsourced surveillance data, w/ behavioral data and adherence to recommendations data + transmission models, we found that ~90k symptomatic cases, corresponding to 9 out 10 cases, were not detected by the surveillance system after the 1st lockdown.pic.twitter.com/vT6zDJWXjV
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Too often the number of cases is communicated as an indicator to monitor the epidemic activity over time. Here we show that detection rate may substantially vary over time but also geographically, region by region.pic.twitter.com/VbuPg2Opq9
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Most importantly, test positivity rate is not a good indicator of a system’s detection capacity. So, how do we know if we’re testing enough? We found that capacity scaled as the inverse of the square root of the incidence, rapidly deteriorating already at low incidence levels.pic.twitter.com/apMZLoLSk9
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Only 31% of suspect
#COVID19 cases in http://COVIDnet.fr consulted a doctor to get tested. Our projections indicate that at least 80% of them should get tested to achieve a strong and systematic case-based surveillance, as recommended by#WHO.pic.twitter.com/CP6RcKu54C
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Easier access is granted today by antigenic testing. But the conversation is mainly centered around individual testing for the holidays or 1-shot massive testing campaigns in specific areas (w/ low adhesion rates).
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Meanwhile, detection rate remains close to the minimum levels (~50%) needed to achieve control of the epidemic avoiding strict social distancing:https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-020-01698-4 …
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Substantially more aggressive and targeted testing is required to act as a pandemic-fighting tool. Testing strategy needs to be once again the cornerstone of our public health response against
#COVID19 to aid control in the upcoming winter months.Näytä tämä ketju -
On the Methods: we showed that data on school attendance by school level, presence at workplace, adoption of preventive measures, higher risk aversion of seniors, over time and by region, are needed to accurately capture the transmission dynamics.
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Finally, a big thanks to all participants of http://COVIDnet.fr .
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