"🇨🇳growing at 2.5% have yet to be fully digested anywhere, including Beijing. For 1 thing, assuming that 🇺🇸grows at 1.5%, with similar rates of inflation & a stable exchange rate, 🇨🇳would not overtake 🇺🇸as the world’s largest economy until 2060, if ever."
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No magical re-localization trick twitter.com/utopiah/status to consider in light of more encompassing export control straitstimes.com/world/united-s
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"@SIAAmerica & @BCG estimate that upfront investment of up to $1.2tn would be needed /region to have fully localised supply chains at 2019 levels, followed by continuous spending of up to $125bn/y."
EUV lito(ASML)
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fabs(TSMC)
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fabless design(NVIDIA,Intel,AMD)
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twitter.com/FinancialTimes…
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fabs(TSMC)
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fabless design(NVIDIA,Intel,AMD)
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twitter.com/FinancialTimes…Show this thread
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Perception globally also shifted theguardian.com/world/2022/oct by for the
That translates to economical trust, in turn to minimizing risky partnerships.
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"the top-down control in Chinese academia is distorting the direction of research, too. Many faculty members are choosing their research areas to curry favor with heads of departments or deans, who have considerable power over their careers."
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"Xi’s tightening grip over science and the economy means that these problems will intensify. And as is true in all autocracies, no independent experts or domestic media will speak up about the train wreck he has set in motion." @ProSyn prosyn.org/6ofKV6m
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It's one thing to conceive of a downfall but it's another to consider the consequences of it.
Looking at oec.world/en/profile/cou by or atlas.cid.harvard.edu/countries/43/e by could help do just that.
If the domino truly falls, which ones w/o alternatives follow?
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Wondering how one can identify their own risk via analyzing dependencies, especially bottlenecks, from a graph.
Thinking of adversarial dependencies twitter.com/utopiah/status could one use such aggregates knowing that graph will evolve over time as re-routing takes place?🤔
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Adversarial dependencies : using components from 3rd parties with opposite goals to the current project.
e.g using work funded and motivated by surveillance capitalism while building a privacy focused tool, like Brave relying on Chromium by Google.
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"Professor [Minxin] Pei, who said he believed that Mr. Xi’s leadership lineup showed that he did not value expertise in managing a market-oriented economy. “He values people who can implement his policy regardless of the economic consequences.”"
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Interesting also to consider this situation not just as an import/export (trade) flow graph but also perceptions, as described in twitter.com/StefaniCrabtre and thus wielded information about these flows. Clearly based on economical KPI held for a while, it's a known challenge.
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Very excited our paper "Why are sustainable practices often elusive? The role of information flow in the management of networked human-environment interactions" is out today in @GEC_Journal. 1/n sciencedirect.com/science/articl
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On the housing bubble "China's home prices see biggest fall in 7 years, recovery bumpy"
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Yet how the specifics of its banking system might do so in slow motion : "Nonsense! China's Economy Will NOT Collapse" by
Replying to
On the consequence of self-confidence at the state level twitter.com/Twerpsichore2/
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More coordinated export bans
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Japan to Join US Effort to Tighten Chip Exports to China
"Japan, the Netherlands sought to act in concert on new rules
Curbs will affect chipmaking gear firms ASML, Tokyo Electron"
bloomberg.com/news/articles/1
Export controls hit China’s access to Arm’s leading-edge chip designs
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Giving up on investment to search for cheaper basic materials, going down, not up, the value chain :
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Stuck between a rock (public funding that gets wasted with inefficiencies or frauds) and a hard place (actual protected market successes being squashed, e.g Jack Ma) I'm not sure whom would be willing to dedicate the necessary knowledge and efforts to this kind of project.🤷♂️
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