I think everyone was too shellshocked during the bicycle advisory board meeting last night to process the numbers that the board was being told. Here's how they were broken down.
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The original bike master plan subprogram of the Move Seattle levy assumed that $94 million would go toward bike facilities over the 9 years of the levy. The update done this year now assumes that will go to... $92 million, in the worst case scenario.
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Notice that local dollars will be contributing an additional $6 million: I don't know where that comes from yet. $65 million in levy funds stays the same. If unsecured federal dollars come through, we could have an *additional* $10 million from original estimates.
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The real problem for the bike master plan funding isn't base funding but cost for projects. But the bad news for Danny Westneat is that if projects cost more than anticipated, we just get fewer miles of projects. We won't be raiding the arterial paving budget.
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Assuming a $92 million budget cap, we've already spent 25% of our bike master plan budget in the first two years of the levy. $23 million got us 10.3 miles of *combined* greenways and protected bike lanes. $2.25 million per mile.
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Per the meeting last night, the project list for 2018 and 2020 is *not changing*, which means that we're expected to spend $56.4 million over that period to build a combined 55.5 miles of PBL/Greenways. $1.02 million per mile.
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Again, assuming that $92 million budget floor stays where it is, with no additional money, that only leaves $12.4 million for the 2021-2024 period of the levy. To get to the levy goals, we'd need to build 15 miles of greenways and 28.8 miles of PBLs with that money.
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Even if the additional $12 million in federal dollars comes through, that still means a per-mile average of $550,000. So the really bad news is for our post-Northgate Link city.
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The obvious question is: how realistic are the projected costs for the 2018-2021 projects, based on recent data? 2021 has 4th ave, another downtown project with heavy signal work.
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