Tom

Houston, we have a problem!!pic.twitter.com/ZPU6jB17qG

Also: finished T-18th, three picks back from $100k and two back from $20k. One of these days I’m going to land a big score — I’m duepic.twitter.com/L6BOxqJHfA

Santa came late this year!! Cashed one of my three entries for a $4,400 payday. Went 48/70 on that entry for a 68.5% hit rate... maybe I should start betting NFL https://twitter.com/twagner55/status/1178354271697489925 …pic.twitter.com/5PQ4qbyG2N

PAC 12 Surprising to see that Utah hasn’t wrapped up the P12 South yet. If they beat Colorado (Utah is -28), they’ll go onto the championship vs Oregon with the Pac 12’s CFP hopes on their shoulders. Would they get in over a one-loss Alabama?pic.twitter.com/5UkjPngFmD

BIG 12 Baylor and Oklahoma set for a rematch in Dallas, with Oklahoma projected as a 7-point favorite, though that number is likely too low as well. Will a one loss Big 12 champ get in? The winner will certainly be watching the SEC Championship closely (and cheering for LSU).pic.twitter.com/KI0s0RccjY

BIG 10 Another “win-and-in” division game. Vegas spread (WIS -3) currently mirrors the simulations[.]run projected margin (WIS -3.6). Can MN run defense slow down the WIS running game? OSU patiently waiting to likely destroy winner in B1G title game.pic.twitter.com/JFsqHDcC2I

SEC Georgia projected to be a +2.5 dog per the power ratings, though the actual spread will likely be higher. An unstoppable force (LSU O, #2 overall) vs an immovable object (Georgia D, #2 overall).pic.twitter.com/Ye85X2pWmk

ACC Clemson obviously in the driver’s seat here, as they’d be favored by 20+ against UVA/VT winner. Interesting piece here is that UVA is +2.5 at home with a better power rating, likely because of VT’s recent dominance (45-0 @ GT, 28-0 vs Pitt).pic.twitter.com/qaW2qaq7C9

** CONFERENCE BY CONFERENCE THREAD ** Using updated power ratings I want to take a closer look at each conference now that each conference’s scenarios are mostly enumerable on one hand. For expanded detail and updated power rankings → https://www.simulations.run/ pic.twitter.com/k90VbkyhYF

simulations[.]run update We're in the home stretch. Some divisions are determined, some conferences are virtually determined. Here's a head-to-head look comparing simulations[.]run to ESPN FPIpic.twitter.com/7E8LEVr5Jc

Minnesota had 7 drives of at least 40 yards, but only scored 2 TDs. Iowa only had 3 drives for 40+ yards (their first 3), but scored TDs on all 3. Tough to win a game on the road against a ranked team without finishing drivespic.twitter.com/arNjCsJFCv

Used the updated power rating numbers to generate Week 12 "Leverage" within the Big Ten West A closer look at how Minnesota's and Wisconsin route to the division title would change based on this weekend's results: https://twitter.com/twagner55/status/1194737001771274246 …pic.twitter.com/5K7uOtk6eQ

simulations[.]run update Let's take a spin around the country and go conference by conference using updated simulation detail, with the simulations powered as always by SP+, FPI, Massey and Dokter Entropy. Updated detail for every team/conference: https://www.simulations.run/ pic.twitter.com/lBhxaSRfJj

take from Dustin Everyone's talking about why Minnesota should be ahead of the one loss teams, and given the below I agree with Dustin that Penn State should be too. https://twitter.com/SchutteCFB/status/1194445741881729025 …pic.twitter.com/5DC1GosyiT

Some quick napkin math in Excel backs up this calculation. Tempted to put a editable Google sheet together or simple web-app together to let people edit the win probability inputs -- but I'm going to hold off for now. Maybe later this week! https://twitter.com/twagner55/status/1193332242212372480 …pic.twitter.com/VWeDwnlEnQ

simulations[.]run update PLUS: A custom look at Week 11 "leverage" --> how would this week's results affect the Big Ten West division race? Short answer: The Iowa/Wisconsin game is *essentially* an elimination game Updated simulation detail --> https://www.simulations.run/ pic.twitter.com/vO2vHxxZX5

simulations[.]run update This week I want to take a look at what I've built vs the models everyone knows well. Proud to say the numbers hold their own when compared directly! Updated simulations, including hard-to-find division-level detail --> https://www.simulations.run/ pic.twitter.com/eM4UEiEN6Y

simulations[.]run UPDATE Featuring: A new Big 10 West division favorite, by the slimmest of margins - @GopherFootball Update power ratings, game by game win probabilities and simulation detail, incl. division-level detail not found anywhere else: https://www.simulations.run/ pic.twitter.com/JJlvK3XjwW

MID-SEASON UPDATE The ten most likely teams to win their conference before the season started and the ten most likely teams to win their conference as of now. Notable exits: Georgia (now 12%), UCF (now 13%) Notable entrants (preseason %): Ohio St (22%), Wisconsin (10%)pic.twitter.com/oQQ3YpXU4Z

simulations[.]run WEEK 4 UPDATE Clemson slides slightly, Ohio State continues their steady rise. Should be some major shifts in the coming weeks with all the big games coming up Full update here: https://www.simulations.run/ pic.twitter.com/byvww3DQqR