Tom

@twagner55

Software Engineer | Builder of simulations[.]run | Sports, Gophers Football, sports analytics and other nonsense

Vrijeme pridruživanja: listopad 2009.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    1. stu 2019.

    🚨 simulations[.]run update 🚨 This week I want to take a look at what I've built vs the models everyone knows well. Proud to say the numbers hold their own when compared directly! Updated simulations, including hard-to-find division-level detail -->

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  2. 15. sij

    Happy to chat brother! It is a difficult journey that requires a lot of discipline, but the journey is worth it DM’s are open for you and all the folks out there

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  3. 12. sij

    Houston, we have a problem!!

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  4. 12. sij

    **This** Hard to grasp, I wish I knew understood this as a kid and teenager. Had no concept of what life is an adult is actually like and how my behavior would affect my future life until like junior year of college

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  5. 12. sij

    This guy makes $1mm+ per year gambling on sports, is way smarter than me and feels the same. People chronically underestimate the value of turnovers, the EPA per turnover is ~5 points

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  6. 12. sij
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  7. 12. sij

    Baltimore has not been sharp, but this is a bad take. The Ravens have three turnovers, are 0/3 on 4th Down and are out-gaining the Titans 465 - 297. Without those turnovers, Baltimore would likely be winning and they’d probably win if these two teams played again.

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  8. 3. sij

    Incredibly underwhelming hire -- Utah State 82nd in Offensive SP+ this year. Is PJ aware that Joe Moorhead was fired this morning?? (Yes, I'm aware this hire was likely agreed to before that news... but maybe the ink isn't dry yet)

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  9. 1. sij

    What a way to cap an amazing season. A group of incredible Senior go out on top, and the rest of the team heads into 2020 knowing they can play with anyone in the country. Ski U Mah and Row the dang Boat!!!

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  10. 1. sij

    ✅ College football website ✅ Marathon ✅ Data structures and algorithms ✅ International trip ❌ Read more Proud of what I’ve accomplished and how hard I’ve worked this year, but there’s always room for improvement. Looking forward to what 2020 has in store!

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  11. 31. pro 2019.

    Also: finished T-18th, three picks back from $100k and two back from $20k. One of these days I’m going to land a big score — I’m due

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  12. 31. pro 2019.

    Santa came late this year!! Cashed one of my three entries for a $4,400 payday. Went 48/70 on that entry for a 68.5% hit rate... maybe I should start betting NFL 👀

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  13. 29. pro 2019.

    A bunch of my favorite things... I gotta go see this movie

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  14. 29. stu 2019.
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  15. 27. stu 2019.

    Full detail for every team/conference/division:

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  16. 27. stu 2019.

    PAC 12 Surprising to see that Utah hasn’t wrapped up the P12 South yet. If they beat Colorado (Utah is -28), they’ll go onto the championship vs Oregon with the Pac 12’s CFP hopes on their shoulders. Would they get in over a one-loss Alabama?

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  17. 27. stu 2019.

    BIG 12 Baylor and Oklahoma set for a rematch in Dallas, with Oklahoma projected as a 7-point favorite, though that number is likely too low as well. Will a one loss Big 12 champ get in? The winner will certainly be watching the SEC Championship closely (and cheering for LSU).

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  18. 27. stu 2019.

    BIG 10 Another “win-and-in” division game. Vegas spread (WIS -3) currently mirrors the simulations[.]run projected margin (WIS -3.6). Can MN run defense slow down the WIS running game? OSU patiently waiting to likely destroy winner in B1G title game.

    , , i još njih 3
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  19. 27. stu 2019.

    SEC Georgia projected to be a +2.5 dog per the power ratings, though the actual spread will likely be higher. An unstoppable force (LSU O, #2 overall) vs an immovable object (Georgia D, #2 overall).

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  20. 27. stu 2019.

    ACC Clemson obviously in the driver’s seat here, as they’d be favored by 20+ against UVA/VT winner. Interesting piece here is that UVA is +2.5 at home with a better power rating, likely because of VT’s recent dominance (45-0 @ GT, 28-0 vs Pitt).

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  21. 27. stu 2019.

    ** CONFERENCE BY CONFERENCE THREAD ** Using updated power ratings I want to take a closer look at each conference now that each conference’s scenarios are mostly enumerable on one hand. For expanded detail and updated power rankings →

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