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trvrb's profile
Trevor Bedford
Trevor Bedford
Trevor Bedford
Verified account
@trvrb

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Trevor BedfordVerified account

@trvrb

Scientist @fredhutch, studying viruses, evolution and immunity. Collection of #COVID19 threads here: https://bedford.io/misc/twitter/ 

Seattle, WA
bedford.io
Joined December 2010

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    1. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 18 Dec 2021

      Q&A with @dwallacewells covering Omicron. Why is the Gauteng epidemic cresting so seemingly early? What's going on with Omicron severity? https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12/the-south-africa-omicron-wave-is-already-peaking-why.html …pic.twitter.com/U2ruLKyHLL

      58 replies 241 retweets 856 likes
    2. Cry for the Earth‏ @GlobalGreenDeal 18 Dec 2021
      Replying to @trvrb @dwallacewells

      My guess is that @dwallacewells tried to point out that the intrinsic severity of #Omicron (and coming variants) may be comparable with the flue. Your thoughts on that? https://twitter.com/dwallacewells/status/1472175867921113088 …pic.twitter.com/a3tycK6eqZ

      2 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
    3. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 18 Dec 2021
      Replying to @GlobalGreenDeal @dwallacewells

      Trevor Bedford Retweeted Trevor Bedford

      This is effectively the scenario I present here: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1448297977005723653 …. Lots of circulation every year, per infection risk of death low, but still significant population level mortality (just like flu).

      Trevor Bedford added,

      Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrb
      At endemicity, circulation does not necessarily translate to disease burden. Based on robust vaccine effectiveness against severe outcomes, my speculative guess would be that infection to fatality rate (IFR) drops 10-fold from its original ~0.6% to a flu-like ~0.06%. 14/17
      Show this thread
      13 replies 6 retweets 40 likes
    4. Ryan Hickman‏ @ryanmhickman 18 Dec 2021
      Replying to @trvrb @GlobalGreenDeal @dwallacewells

      Ryan Hickman Retweeted Trevor Bedford

      Would you update those October estimates on attack rate given Omicron?https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1448297979899781127?t=tuugcV3CeovFPBJPsMP_vg&s=19 …

      Ryan Hickman added,

      Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrb
      100k deaths would be 30% attack rate with 0.1% IFR, while 40k deaths would be 20% attack rate with 0.06% IFR. In general, like with seasonal flu I would expect significant season-to-season variability. 16/17
      Show this thread
      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
      Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 18 Dec 2021
      Replying to @ryanmhickman @GlobalGreenDeal @dwallacewells

      Yes, but not hugely. With Omicron we could easily have 50% attack rate in 2022 rather than the 20-30% I assumed in Oct. But this 50% is a guess and we'll see what happens. (Keep in mind these attack rates are infections and not cases, most infections are not recorded as cases).

      1:18 PM - 18 Dec 2021
      • 5 Retweets
      • 17 Likes
      • Aron Roberts vickietolbert Ella Starr🌃right path in the most unlikely place Colleen Blick Christopher R. Perle, PhD (Biologist, from birth) chris pepperdine Deus Abscondis Pietro 🇺🇸🇮🇹 CrowdedHead
      1 reply 5 retweets 17 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Ryan Hickman‏ @ryanmhickman 18 Dec 2021
          Replying to @trvrb @GlobalGreenDeal @dwallacewells

          50% is yikes, but seems plausible. Are median aged (~40) boosted folks likely to be in the 0.06% IFR rate now or do we still need new pills to get there?pic.twitter.com/iQELZACTtG

          1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
        3. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 18 Dec 2021
          Replying to @ryanmhickman @GlobalGreenDeal @dwallacewells

          I'd assume that the breakdown of deaths by age won't change much at endemicity. Deaths will still largely be in those over 65. Figure is CDC mortality data.pic.twitter.com/OnPkBsOFmD

          2 replies 5 retweets 15 likes
        4. Show replies

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