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Note also that high immune escape, lower intrinsic transmissibility is not necessarily a good thing. Higher immune escape places previously infected and vaccinated individuals more at risk. 17/18
We'll know much more about this level of risk in ~2 weeks when we get neutralization results. I'm particularly interested in neutralization titers of individuals with two doses of vaccine vs individuals with three doses of vaccine. 18/18
For the for several tweets, you're focusing on the data from South Africa, which has a low vaccination rate, their population immunity is very likely less than 50%, which would put it much closer to delta in terms of immunity escape and more of a transmission advantage, right?
SA population prior exposure is estimated to be in the 95% range, higher than the US 80 to 85% range, due to higher infection.
At the risk of outing myself as an idiot, can you give a TL,DR with an ELI5 theme? (Not kidding, I relay info like this to my 80 something parents)
Vaccination and a booster is very likely to help you avoid getting very sick. It is very likely to help even if you get Omicron. Probably a higher number of people will get sick (if we don’t increase protections). There will probably be more group impacts like more full hospitals
Any thoughts on immune escape in a vaccinated vs previously infected population? Is the spike in infection in S. Africa in a population with relatively low vax / high previous infection? How does this impact comparisons to US? Thanks!
"individuals with three doses of vaccine"
Israel reports 2 doctors (each 3x vaccinated) to test positive for #omicron (one even infected the other).
(Anecdotal evidence, nevertheless interesting)https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/two-israeli-doctors-test-positive-for-omicron-covid-variant-687412 …
Given that increased transmissibility has correlated with increased virulence for alpha and delta then this *could* support idea of milder infection (but sure wider infected pop > deaths)? Bad news for high vax countries tho
Do we have enough data yet to rule out Antigen Dependent Enhancement (ADE) which would put previously infected and/or vaccinated folk more at risk.
Derek Lowe has written about ADE repeatedly. There is zero evidence for ADE in infections after Covid vaccination. https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/antibody-dependent-enhancement-and-coronavirus-vaccines … https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/new-antibody-dependent-enhancement-hypothesis …
What percentage of the population in Gauteng and South Africa are vaccinated?
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