But as stated previously, I believe this estimate is likely to drop somewhat as more data comes in. But I wouldn't be surprised if this drops to something still significant, say 3X or 4X the transmission rate of Delta in South Africa. 4/18https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1465364321303597061 …
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Note the these estimates are sensitive to assumed population immunity. Under a scenario of 85% population immunity, we get the following picture instead that shifts the required level of immune escape upwards for a particular R0 value. 15/18pic.twitter.com/UJUZdqBTmW
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Again, based on wildly divergent spike protein, I'm guessing that immune escape will be substantial and so I still suspect that it's quite possible that Omicron will show lower intrinsic transmissibility than Delta. My updated diagram. 16/18pic.twitter.com/T4vuiEN75I
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Note also that high immune escape, lower intrinsic transmissibility is not necessarily a good thing. Higher immune escape places previously infected and vaccinated individuals more at risk. 17/18
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We'll know much more about this level of risk in ~2 weeks when we get neutralization results. I'm particularly interested in neutralization titers of individuals with two doses of vaccine vs individuals with three doses of vaccine. 18/18
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There's a report (not yet published) from Israel that breakthroughs and reinfections are twice as common - for example, boosted Pfizer v. infection drops 95%->90%. I assume that's "50%" on your graph, putting R0 at 4,5 if true?
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If so, this might support Hotez's hypothesis of an upcoming dual-strain pandemic in countries that haven't been hit as hard by Delta - Delta attacking naive populations better and omicron doing more breakthroughs and reinfections among the under-protected.
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It was much better in the 60s and 70s when there were good scientists and epidemiologists working on these things. Now everyone is in an existential crisis to make enough money to pay their outrageous mortgages.
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The few sources I have seen discussing contact tracing for omicron (the four Nov 11 cases from diplomats in Botswana, and subsequent EU cases) have all said that 100% of close contacts tested negative. Doesn’t that suggest lower intrinsic R0?
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CNBC just reported the same with the first case identified in the US who came from South Africa. Interesting.
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