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trvrb's profile
Trevor Bedford
Trevor Bedford
Trevor Bedford
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@trvrb

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Trevor BedfordVerified account

@trvrb

Scientist @fredhutch, studying viruses, evolution and immunity. Collection of #COVID19 threads here: https://bedford.io/misc/twitter/ 

Seattle, WA
bedford.io
Joined December 2010

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    Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 18 Feb 2021

    After a ~2 month plateau from mid-Nov to mid-Jan, the US #COVID19 epidemic has undergone a steady week after week decline and is now back to daily case counts last seen in late October. A thread on what we might expect going forwards. 1/13pic.twitter.com/M7vrdECUX2

    8:27 AM - 18 Feb 2021
    • 707 Retweets
    • 2,269 Likes
    • A   :  -   )  Changing JP Lily Elisa triple vaxxed Cat Ballou Ryan J. Kaz Quaker Nana Dharmin Trivedi yiming
    65 replies 707 retweets 2,269 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 18 Feb 2021

        Working with case counts from @COVID19Tracking and Rt estimates from https://epiforecasts.io , I'm showing US confirmed cases broken out by state alongside transmission rate as measured by Rt through time. 2/13pic.twitter.com/hhbbuQsLaa

        5 replies 23 retweets 242 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 18 Feb 2021

        Generally, Rt > 1 in Nov and Dec corresponding to rising cases and drops below 1 in Jan corresponding to falling cases. We've seen a steady decline in Rt from Nov to Feb. Thus, current decline is not a sudden shift in circumstance, but resulted from reaching Rt < 1. 3/13

        3 replies 32 retweets 237 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 18 Feb 2021

        The US fall/winter epidemic is illustrated here as a series of twice monthly snapshots with bubble size representing per-capita case counts in a state and bubble color representing Rt, where red indicates growing epidemics and blue represents declining epidemics. 4/13pic.twitter.com/mSC0w42ckG

        2 replies 25 retweets 225 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 18 Feb 2021

        This shows "inflation" in Nov and Dec followed by "deflation" starting mid-Jan. The Dakotas and surroundings show a similar trajectory to other states, but were ahead of the curve with an epidemic peak in Nov. 5/13pic.twitter.com/W6lV2ULjWI

        5 replies 17 retweets 182 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 18 Feb 2021

        Solely based on continued improvements to seasonality and continued increase in population immunity due to natural infection and vaccination I'd expect this trend to largely continue and the US fall/winter surge to be brought further under control. 6/13

        5 replies 34 retweets 334 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 18 Feb 2021

        However, the rapid take-off of B.1.1.7 will push against these gains. The trajectory of B.1.1.7 in the UK decently fits a simple logistic growth model with a growth rate r of 0.07 per day as assessed using SARS-CoV-2 genome data from @GISAID. 7/13pic.twitter.com/WwrWEWS4Gi

        6 replies 55 retweets 296 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 18 Feb 2021

        A similar rate of growth of B.1.1.7 is observed in Denmark and Switzerland with Denmark reaching ~20% B.1.1.7 frequency and Switzerland reaching nearly 20% B.1.1.7 frequency at the end of January. 8/13pic.twitter.com/pWPWPYZYD8

        2 replies 29 retweets 208 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 18 Feb 2021

        Recent work from @genesareclever, @gkay92, @K_G_Andersen and colleagues looking at B.1.1.7 in the US (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.06.21251159v1 …) estimated a similar rate of frequency increase, which suggests B.1.1.7 will reach 50% frequency in the US by perhaps late March. 9/13pic.twitter.com/QbZZpxi0YB

        8 replies 85 retweets 282 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 18 Feb 2021

        However, current prevalence differs across states and B.1.1.7 may become dominant in some areas of the US earlier than other areas. 10/13

        2 replies 15 retweets 192 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 18 Feb 2021

        It's not clear to me at this point whether biological increase in transmissibility of B.1.1.7 will "win" against further improvements to seasonality and immunity in ~6 weeks time at the end of March. 11/13

        11 replies 67 retweets 404 likes
        Show this thread
      12. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 18 Feb 2021

        Increased transmissibility of B.1.1.7 will certainly stretch out circulation of COVID-19 and make it harder to bring under control relative to the non-B.1.1.7 scenario, but I'm not sure at this point how much of a spring B.1.1.7 wave to expect. 12/13

        14 replies 70 retweets 420 likes
        Show this thread
      13. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 18 Feb 2021

        I do think this will become clear shortly as we observe what happens in countries like Denmark and Switzerland or states like Florida which are farther along on their B.1.1.7 trajectories relative to the US as a whole. 13/13

        62 replies 81 retweets 604 likes
        Show this thread
      14. End of conversation

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