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trvrb's profile
Trevor Bedford
Trevor Bedford
Trevor Bedford
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@trvrb

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Trevor BedfordVerified account

@trvrb

Scientist @fredhutch, studying viruses, evolution and immunity. Collection of #COVID19 threads here: https://bedford.io/misc/twitter/ 

Seattle, WA
bedford.io
Joined December 2010

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    Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Dec 2020

    Trevor Bedford Retweeted Trevor Bedford

    With data that has emerged in the last week, I'm now 80-90% convinced that infections by the UK variant virus (Pangolin lineage B.1.1.7, @nextstrain clade 20B/501Y.V1) result in, on average, more onward infections, ie are more transmissible. 1/10https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1341446447045087232 …

    Trevor Bedford added,

    Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrb
    Following up on general thoughts on antigenic drift of #COVID19 from this weekend, I wanted to discuss what we know about the new variant of SARS-CoV-2 thats emerged in the UK. 1/17 https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1340409968818671616 …
    Show this thread
    1:22 PM - 29 Dec 2020
    • 978 Retweets
    • 2,057 Likes
    • Lovely Saunders Marc Choisy Redshirt Renee Goh Lyn Nee Dr. Meryl CD8 PharmD 🧫🔬 #CovidAndFungus Samira Asma Kristin Coombs Anderson R Moritiz αmαи∂α ṧтᎥƚтʐ
    76 replies 978 retweets 2,057 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Dec 2020

        My thinking primarily comes from three data points: 1. rapid increase in frequency of variant over wildtype 2. higher secondary attack rate of variant than wildtype 3. increased viral loads of variant over wildtype as measured by Ct 2/10

        6 replies 71 retweets 344 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Dec 2020

        For point 1 (increase in frequency) we have pretty much the same data as of a week ago, where we see increasing frequency of variant over wildtype across the UK. This can be readily seen in this analysis by @TWenseleers. 3/10 https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1343575693544796160 …pic.twitter.com/lWu5kTDWgo

        4 replies 31 retweets 180 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Dec 2020

        For point 2 (secondary attack rate), we have new data from the second @PHE_uk technical report (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201 …) where a matched cohort study was conducting comparing 1769 wildtype cases and 1769 matched variant cases. 4/10

        1 reply 30 retweets 158 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Dec 2020

        By integrating contact tracing data @PHE_uk was able to compare secondary attack rate between wildtype cases and variant cases, where ~10% of contacts of wildtype cases go on to be detected as COVID+ compared to ~15% of contacts of variant cases. 5/10pic.twitter.com/sLSVcIzVpT

        5 replies 45 retweets 191 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Dec 2020

        Both increase in frequency and secondary attack rate indicate essentially the same quantity, which is the number of secondary infections left by a primary infection, ie R, and tells us that realized transmission rate is likely higher in variant than wildtype infections. 6/10

        2 replies 30 retweets 176 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Dec 2020

        For point 3 (viral load), we have new data as reported by Michael Kidd, @alanmcn1 et al (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248834v1 …) that shows that variant cases (as identified by S dropout) have Ct values ~4 units lower than wildtype cases. 7/10pic.twitter.com/ZIQQH1NFZS

        10 replies 63 retweets 226 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Dec 2020

        This translates to an estimated 10 to 100-fold increase in average viral load of variant cases. This gives a hypothesized mechanism for increased transmissibility, ie individuals infected by the variant will on average expel more virus and be consequently more infectious. 8/10

        13 replies 127 retweets 396 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Dec 2020

        The @PHE_uk matched cohort study shows early evidence for a lack of severity difference in terms of hospitalizations and deaths between wildtype cases and variant cases. And additionally shows lack of detectable differences in re-infection rate between variant and wildtype. 9/10

        7 replies 35 retweets 234 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Dec 2020

        Scientists in the UK are working intensely to address questions of transmissibility, severity and antigenicity of the variant virus and we should learn more in the coming days and weeks, and especially as we see how the UK epidemic continues to play out. 10/10

        18 replies 54 retweets 312 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 29 Dec 2020

        Trevor Bedford Retweeted Susan Hopkins

        Follow up #1: The @PHE_uk secondary attack rate analysis was not done on the matched cohort. There should be more stratification here. I'm sorry for the confusion. I'd take the 15% vs 10% secondary attack rate with a grain of salt for the moment.https://twitter.com/SMHopkins/status/1344006233024585728 …

        Trevor Bedford added,

        Susan Hopkins @SMHopkins
        Correct. The SAR was not done on stratified analysis. More coming there. https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1344005910264471553 …
        11 replies 34 retweets 264 likes
        Show this thread
      12. End of conversation

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