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trvrb's profile
Trevor Bedford
Trevor Bedford
Trevor Bedford
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@trvrb

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Trevor BedfordVerified account

@trvrb

Scientist @fredhutch, studying viruses, evolution and immunity. Collection of #COVID19 threads here: https://bedford.io/misc/twitter/ 

Seattle, WA
bedford.io
Joined December 2010

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    1. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

      Trevor Bedford Retweeted The COVID Tracking Project

      The US reported over 3000 deaths from #COVID19 today and the 7-day average of deaths has hit a record with today's average of 2276. Here, I dig into these grim mortality numbers and look at deaths across ages and across weeks in the epidemic. 1/14https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1336837356343607297 …

      Trevor Bedford added,

      4 bar charts showing key COVID-19 metrics for the US over time. Today, states reported 1.8M tests, 210k cases, 106,668 currently hospitalized (record), and 3,054 deaths (record).
      The COVID Tracking ProjectVerified account @COVID19Tracking
      Our daily update is published. States reported 1.8 million tests, 210k cases, and a record 106,688 COVID-19 patients in US hospitals. There were 3,054 reported deaths today -- the highest single-day total to date. pic.twitter.com/LcgzPJZdO6
      Show this thread
      19 replies 209 retweets 482 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

      I'm using data from @CDCgov (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/ …) that records weekly deaths involving COVID-19 as well as deaths from all causes. These data use actual date of death but there is a reporting lag. 2/14

      2 replies 5 retweets 65 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

      CDC reports 261k deaths involving COVID-19 in this dataset. Over half of these deaths are in individuals 75 or older and over three quarters are in individuals 65 or older. 3/14pic.twitter.com/fvVsykkgXF

      1 reply 23 retweets 94 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

      If we look over time we see the following where COVID-19 associated deaths are shown as colored interval on top of the background of all cause mortality in gray. This is not a stacked plot and so the notable bump in all cause mortality in April is attributable to COVID-19. 4/14pic.twitter.com/RpFWfjdJ8A

      1 reply 15 retweets 79 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

      You can see from this that COVID-19 associated deaths are a decent fraction of all cause mortality for individuals over ~35 years. It's also quite obvious that deaths in the past 4 weeks are not fully reported (hence the gray intervals that dive towards zero at the present). 5/14

      1 reply 8 retweets 73 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

      Still, the increased rate of deaths from the 3rd wave is visible as rising COVID-19 deaths in mid-November. With continued high levels of circulation I fully expect this bump to continual to climb. 6/14

      1 reply 7 retweets 53 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

      If we look from March to today, we see that COVID-19 associated deaths are ~3.5% of all cause mortality in 25-34 year olds and 9 to 11% of all cause mortality in individuals over 45. 7/14pic.twitter.com/GoeCz5NZOy

      3 replies 40 retweets 104 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

      There hasn't been a marked shift in age distribution of deaths since May. 8/14pic.twitter.com/5oiXF9lTUB

      3 replies 10 retweets 70 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

      By using age-specific mortality alongside estimates of total infections across age groups from seroprevalence, researchers have estimated the age-specific infection fatality ratio (IFR). 9/14

      3 replies 6 retweets 55 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

      @nfbrazeau, @lucy_okell and colleagues estimate age-specific IFR ranging from 0.02% in 15-24 year olds to 16% in individuals over 90. Remarkably, IFR against age appears linear on a log scale suggesting risk of death grows exponentially with age. http://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-34-ifr/ … 10/14pic.twitter.com/vT3jXnBJv9

      5 replies 62 retweets 199 likes
      Show this thread
      Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

      Similarly, @zorinaq compiles age-specific IFR from a number of studies and arrives at similar findings with broad agreement in age-specific IFR estimates. These estimates place COVID-19 IFR at 10-15X that of seasonal influenza in older age groups. https://github.com/mbevand/covid19-age-stratified-ifr … 11/14pic.twitter.com/XXUpgH7zsy

      5:13 PM - 9 Dec 2020
      • 65 Retweets
      • 226 Likes
      • George Gordon Noel Lord Byron Redivivo Manu  444232 wvgl 😷 (((Stuart W))) 😷 Natalie mustafa çebiş MRC Beyza
      6 replies 65 retweets 226 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

          One perhaps helpful framing for thinking about these numbers is the difference between absolute and relative risk of death. For example, in the 35-44 year old cohort IFR is estimated to be ~0.12%. However, overall yearly death rate for this cohort without COVID is ~0.24%. 12/14

          2 replies 19 retweets 88 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

          Thus, getting COVID as a 35-44 year old roughly increases yearly risk of death by 1.5X. So, small in absolute terms, but sizable in relative terms. Using above IFR estimates from @mrc_outbreak gives the following distribution of increased yearly risk of death across ages. 13/14pic.twitter.com/gIbcyv6Xi1

          11 replies 106 retweets 296 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

          And if I use a similar approach to roughly estimate increased risk of death across cohorts by assuming 15% of the US has been infected as of Nov 15 (https://covid19-projections.com/ ) and using above mortality figures, I arrive at the following quite similar estimates. 14/14pic.twitter.com/o2KApxLTq5

          15 replies 13 retweets 128 likes
          Show this thread
        5. End of conversation
        1. Robert Warns‏ @bobbywarnsiii 9 Dec 2020
          Replying to @trvrb @zorinaq

          It also shows that a 55 year old has about the same risk of death from Covid as an 80 year old has from the flu.

          0 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
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        1. ChrisLeah★ 💉 💉 💉‏ @ChrisLeahStar 9 Dec 2020
          Replying to @trvrb @zorinaq

          and the huge range of IFR by age means that using a single averaged value, especially as the infection age profile changes just produces a rubbish result. Marc has done some good work on age related infection visualization

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        1. Irish Data Viz‏ @IrishDataViz 11 Dec 2020
          Replying to @trvrb @zorinaq

          From the European Journal of Epidemiology: https://twitter.com/IrishDataViz/status/1337450841545072642?s=20 …pic.twitter.com/NJxkUtI5he

          0 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Tim Kane‏ @TimmerKane 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @trvrb @zorinaq

          Helpful infographic. Shows Covid is roughly 15x worse than seasonal flu.

          1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
        3. karen manfrede‏ @ManfredeKaren 16 Dec 2020
          Replying to @TimmerKane @trvrb @zorinaq

          For old people .

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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