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Another way to look at this is that it took the virus from ~Nov 1 to Feb 1 to reach 100k infections in Wuhan. This is ~90 days. Thus, it would have had to have been circulating in Ohio since mid-Dec for this to be the case, which is almost certainly not the case. 4/5
I don't doubt community spread is happening Ohio and it's highly difficult to do these prevalence estimates well without wider surveillance efforts, but I think this is certainly a strong overestimate. 5/5
I'm basing their logic on this quote: "Whenever you know of 2 people that have it due to community spread, then you can assume that 1% of your population has it," said ODH Press Secretary Melanie Amato, citing a 2017 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report from the CDC."
A follow up based on responses. Many people are saying there's a huge amount of uncounted mortality due to pneumonia. The @CDCgov tracks this, and we don't yet see this in the data (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2 ). I expect #COVID19 to start to show up here, but it hasn't yet.pic.twitter.com/D5mOVEfMMX
At this point, overestimating is better
Disagree. If you overestimate then the math suggests a much lower death rate which leads to dismissal as just another flu
Couldn’t it have been achieved through multiple patient zeros kicking off multiple clusters ? Seattle and wuhan were single source from what we can tell.
Not saying I believe this but isn’t it a plausible way to get to 100k in this amount of time ?
To be honest. First over estimate in the entire epidemic. That’s really who you want to bring the hammer on?
Agree, It’s impossible. Even a doubling rate of three days means that there were 1500 cases 18 days ago, and that would mean at least 5-15 deaths observed. And that’s extreme doubling.
If it's a calculated lie it could be a masterstroke of public health policy
I'd call it a very high estimate indeed, but plausible. I don't think it's more than that, but it could be that high--if the estimate is meant to add in a "buffer" to account for all the people who are only mildly sick or asymptomatic.
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