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trvrb's profile
Trevor Bedford
Trevor Bedford
Trevor Bedford
Verified account
@trvrb

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Trevor BedfordVerified account

@trvrb

Scientist @fredhutch, studying viruses, evolution and immunity. Collection of #COVID19 threads here: https://bedford.io/misc/twitter/ 

Seattle, WA
bedford.io
Joined December 2010

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    1. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 6 Mar 2020

      Trevor Bedford Retweeted Trevor Bedford

      (This analysis and tweet thread in collaboration with @famulare_mike) The existence of a community transmission cluster of #COVID19 in Snohomish and King Counties is now supported by 8 confirmed and sequenced cases (https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1235676811356332032 …). 1/7

      Trevor Bedford added,

      Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrb
      New #SARSCoV2 genomes from the #seattlecoronavirus outbreak have been shared by @UWVirology through GISAID. These group as part of the same emerging transmission chain. 1/3 https://twitter.com/nextstrain/status/1235676290335698945 … pic.twitter.com/rHF2QLWoWF
      Show this thread
      58 replies 822 retweets 1,596 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 6 Mar 2020

      As of today, in addition to the one traveller case, there are ~60 more cases in King and Snohomish counties from which we don't yet know the sequences. 2/7

      4 replies 100 retweets 448 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 6 Mar 2020

      Many of them are surely related to this cluster and some may be recent traveller importations. But some may also represent other clusters not yet confirmed. The model below describes our best estimates for only the confirmed cluster. 3/7

      4 replies 61 retweets 377 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 6 Mar 2020

      Using forward simulation, with a doubling time of 6.2 (5.1, 8.2) days, we estimate the prevalence of active infections on Mar 5 is 620 (90% uncertainty interval 120, 1600). 4/7

      14 replies 163 retweets 554 likes
      Show this thread
      Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 6 Mar 2020

      If growth continues unabated, this cluster alone may be responsible for 1100 (210, 2800) active infections by March 10 and 2000 (370, 5000) by March 15. 5/7pic.twitter.com/AJLXA8t5H1

      5:13 PM - 6 Mar 2020
      • 1,138 Retweets
      • 2,436 Likes
      • Holly Bryan #GetYourVax 💉 Hector Hernandez 🟩🌋 George Eliseo julia yase-mara Stephanie Ruble lyle 𝕶𝕮 Michael Asturias G.Marlowe | wsws.org
      71 replies 1,138 retweets 2,436 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 6 Mar 2020

          We think this phylogenetic evidence continues to support the comprehensive actions recommended by @KCPubHealth, @SnoHD, @WADeptHealth to reduce the rate of transmission. https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/health/communicable-diseases/disease-control/novel-coronavirus/protection.aspx … 6/7

          9 replies 150 retweets 721 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 6 Mar 2020

          We thank @seattleflustudy, @HelenChuMD, @lea_starita, @mjonasrieder, @debnick60, @JShendure, @trs, @databae_, @UWVirology, @pavitrarc, @GreningerLab, @IDMOD_ORG, @BrotmanBaty, @KCPubHealth, @WADeptHealth, @SnoHD, @CDC_AMD 7/7

          24 replies 54 retweets 588 likes
          Show this thread
        4. End of conversation
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        2. ............‏ @gladiolas 6 Mar 2020
          Replying to @trvrb

          Nationwide? Or WA only?

          1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
        3. Richard H. Ebright‏Verified account @R_H_Ebright 6 Mar 2020
          Replying to @gladiolas @trvrb

          Numbers are for WA cluster. Implications are for whole nation (which will experience similar numbers).

          3 replies 10 retweets 120 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Debra Scott‏ @debralous 6 Mar 2020
          Replying to @trvrb

          I see people saying "just like the seasonal flu". Is this true...do we have a growth curve for a typical Seasonal Flu in this community to compare to?

          7 replies 1 retweet 27 likes
        3. This Tweet is unavailable.
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        1. New conversation
        2. Nathan Scandella‏ @enscand 6 Mar 2020
          Replying to @trvrb

          Can't say enough about scientists who care enough to use valuable character space on Twitter to make sure to specify confidence intervals. Well done!

          10 replies 25 retweets 812 likes
        3. Peintre‏ @Peintre 6 Mar 2020
          Replying to @enscand @trvrb

          !!!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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