#nCoV2019 in Wuhan went from an index case in ~Nov 2019 to several thousand cases by mid-Jan 2020, thus going from initial seeding event to widespread local transmission in the span of ~10 weeks. 2/4pic.twitter.com/a8HGHrhthE
Show this thread
Insight into the spatial behavior of epidemics from @ohallats and colleagues. An initial outbreak will grow in its highly connected environment and subsequently seed outbreaks in other locations. These other outbreaks resemble a transposed copy of the first. 1/4pic.twitter.com/0pbtf2ZCOz
-
-
-
We believe that international seeding events started to occur in mid-Jan. Thus we have a critical ~10 weeks from then to late-March to contain these nascent outbreaks before they become sizable. 3/4
Show this thread -
References for
@ohallats's work: https://www.pnas.org/content/111/46/E4911 …, https://journals.plos.org/plosgenetics/article?rev=2&id=10.1371/journal.pgen.1007936 … 4/4Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
Trevor- you are a hero. can you do your best to predict when outbreaks will hit
@minnesota? Or#NYC? Looks like that the#newjersey cruise ship will likely spread the#coronavirus further -
Things will be highly random for the next while. It was just chance that it happened to be Bavaria that got an early cluster. I wouldn’t make predictions for particular locales.
- 3 more replies
New conversation -
-
-
This is real data.https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1223639844829769734?s=21 …
2:20 - End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
An analogy would be spreading town fires where risk of spread is not just to adjacent buildings but wind carries sparks further afield.
Thanks. Twitter will use this info to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Thinking along similar lines ... but large-scale exposure at Wuhan market was not typical epidemic expansion with person-to-person spread out from an index case, and may not be replicated in other settings.
Thanks. Twitter will use this info to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
@amjurgens very interesting.Thanks. Twitter will use this info to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.