Trinh Nguyen

@Trinhnomics

Senior economist for emerging Asia ; Nonresident scholar for the Asia Program ; Views are all mine and you are free to use/like/rt.

Hong Kong
linkedin.com/in/trinh-nguye…
Vrijeme pridruživanja: ožujak 2013.
2.411 fotografija ili videozapisa Fotografije i videozapisi

Tweetovi

Blokirali ste korisnika/cu @Trinhnomics

Jeste li sigurni da želite vidjeti te tweetove? Time nećete deblokirati korisnika/cu @Trinhnomics

  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    5. srp 2018.

    Okay, I think I figured out what is Trump's ultimate game in this escalated US-China trade tensions and I think he will get it. Will share my thoughts in a thread soon! 😎

    117 replies 334 proslijeđena tweeta 911 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  2. prije 4 sata

    If they deny him of this, well, what are they going to do? His supporters are going to swing to Warren? Biden? No, they will stay home!!! They don't like Trump either so they will stay home like they did in 2016, which is what Trump would want. Dejavu!!!

    7 replies 5 proslijeđenih tweetova 45 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  3. prije 4 sata

    I'm going on a whim here & say I predicted this. I mean, they like Elizabeth Warren & Biden, both totally unlikeable. I mean, I like Elizabeth for her eloquence but her policies are a hard sell. Biden is not change. People want change. Bernie is what people wanted in 2016 & 2020.

    7 replies 5 proslijeđenih tweetova 34 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  4. prije 4 sata

    Headline from Bloomberg says Iowa Caucuses running into chaos as Iowa Democratic Party postpone results. I kid u not. They don't like the results so now they're going after 'inconsistencies' in count. I mean. How about writing a book on HOW TO GET PEOPLE TO STAY AT HOME IN 2020?

    9 replies 12 proslijeđenih tweetova 79 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  5. prije 5 sati

    Indonesia shines brightly in this virus scare situation as: a) Exports as a share of GDP low & so exports to China also low (exposure via commodity but not too big as exports small) b) Tourism also smaller vs say Thailand. So inwardly driven Indonesia more IMMUNE! True story!

    3 proslijeđena tweeta 14 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  6. prije 5 sati

    So when China catches a FLU (this case a pretty nasty one that is highly infectious), then who catches the cold??? Well, well, well, the usual suspect of course, such as AUD, KRW, THB!!! MYR too! SGD too but by less!!! 😬🥶😷 🇦🇺🇰🇷🇹🇭

    1 reply 4 proslijeđena tweeta 12 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  7. prije 5 sati

    AUD very linked to China via commodity prices & those not doing too hot right now w/ China locked down & so demand for it lower; KRW for obvs reason of China being its numero uno customer; THB for its tourism exposure as a share of GDP (China trade too)

    1 reply 3 proslijeđena tweeta 5 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  8. prije 5 sati

    And the winner of the virus is: JPY for FX but others like PHP, IDR, VND and IDR not doing tooo badly. Btw, did you know that IDR is the best Asian FX ytd!!! +1.1% vs USD while AUD is -4.2% vs USD. Meaning, IDR/AUD is even better!! Losers of the virus is KRW, AUD, THBT & CNY!

    8 proslijeđenih tweetova 18 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 9 sati

    Facts on SARs & : * SARs TOTAL deaths in mainland 348 vs 425 by 3 Feb 2020 of coronavirus; if the rate of death slows, we'll double SARs by the end of this wk alone; *SARs mainland infected total was 5,327 vs 20,438 on 3 Feb 2020 for corona or roughly 4 times that!

    6 proslijeđenih tweetova 15 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  10. prije 8 sati

    SARs peaked roughly about May 2003 so if the paper I posted yesterday is correct & coronavirus peaks around April then we'll look at Q2 2020 economic impact & not just Q1 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

    5 replies 4 proslijeđena tweeta 13 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  11. prije 8 sati

    SARs 27 March 2003 to 4 May 2003 Much much lower infection # & rate as it was less infectious.

    1 reply 9 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  12. prije 8 sati

    Here is the chart of corona virus after 1 month: 19 Jan to 3 Feb

    6 proslijeđenih tweetova 12 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  13. prije 8 sati

    So if u reading macroeconomic research & someone tells u that the economic impact of this is LESS THAN SARS, then you have to consider that: By now, schools etc during SARs weren't closed & the infected & deaths were lower. Also China was smaller & retail etc was smaller % of GDP

    6 proslijeđenih tweetova 23 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  14. prije 9 sati

    Facts on SARs & : * SARs TOTAL deaths in mainland 348 vs 425 by 3 Feb 2020 of coronavirus; if the rate of death slows, we'll double SARs by the end of this wk alone; *SARs mainland infected total was 5,327 vs 20,438 on 3 Feb 2020 for corona or roughly 4 times that!

    6 proslijeđenih tweetova 15 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  15. prije 9 sati

    Are you ready? Here we go. Comparison b/n SARs vs Corona for mainland deaths + confirmed cases. Btw, deaths in the mainland already exceeds SARs & confirmed cases exceeding by a WIDE MARGIN. So the economic impact'll be WORSE (also China bigger & retail etc more key now).

    8 proslijeđenih tweetova 15 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  16. prije 9 sati

    Note that during SARs the mortality ratio was higher outside the mainland than inside. We'll see more. Urgh, now I see why my family was like why are you leaving California to go to Hong Kong. WEAR YOUR MASKS!!! 😷😬

    1 proslijeđeni tweet 26 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  17. prije 9 sati

    Assumption of slowing daily growth rates gets us roughly ~40k by end this wk & deaths around ~800 by end of the wk. By next wk, it depends whether people go back to work vs staying home this wk. Btw, HK just reported a death on the virus so we'll see the external death ratio.

    1 proslijeđeni tweet 14 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  18. prije 9 sati

    OK, I did some simple forecasting (assuming daily confirmed cases, deaths GROWTH SLOWING), then we get in three days about 37.7k confirmed & 756 deaths. Note that this growth is exponential on a daily basis even if slowing. This doesn't assume higher growth rates but slower...

    12 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  19. prije 9 sati

    This is kind of encouraging & worrying. The # of people recovered from the is now 632 & seems like growth rate stagnating & so that means 19,806 haven't recovered??? Not sure about this stats...

    8 replies 3 proslijeđena tweeta 20 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  20. prije 9 sati

    deaths (only official) & growth rates. Note that it's now 425 & growth rate slowed to 18%

    9 proslijeđenih tweetova 17 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  21. prije 9 sati

    Ready? Here are some charts for you for . Confirmed cases & daily growth rates. We're now at 20,438 & growth rate of 19% (rate of growth slowing but base higher so compounding at a slowing but high rate).

    1 reply 12 proslijeđenih tweetova 25 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi

@Trinhnomics još nije objavio nijedan Tweet.

Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.

Twitter je možda preopterećen ili ima kratkotrajnih poteškoća u radu. Pokušajte ponovno ili potražite dodatne informacije u odjeljku Status Twittera.

    Možda bi vam se svidjelo i ovo:

    ·