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trevortombe's profile
Trevor Tombe
Trevor Tombe
Trevor Tombe
@trevortombe

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Trevor Tombe

@trevortombe

Associate Professor @EconCalgary | Research Fellow @policy_school | Knows nothing about most things, and a little about some. 💻 📊 📝 🍻

Calgary, Alberta
sites.google.com/site/trevortom…
Joined March 2009

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    Trevor Tombe‏ @trevortombe 23h23 hours ago

    Some are suggesting the 36k drop in AB's full-time employment in December means there is no economic recovery. This is silly. Yes, Dec saw a drop; but, Nov saw a big gain. Data measured with error. Look to trends instead. The recovery is clear. #ablegpic.twitter.com/BEY5NDnijU

    7:42 am - 4 Jan 2019
    • 118 Retweets
    • 172 Likes
    • Blair Falconer Jas Pandher Halifax Deal Finder Rod de la Jara Kate Pundyk Jo-Ann A Jens Gundermann James A. Best Lorissa
    13 replies . 118 retweets 172 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Ron Kneebone‏ @RonKneebone 20h20 hours ago
        Replying to @trevortombe

        Unfortunately, the duration of unemployment is moving upward again. Using a 3-month moving average it now (as of December 2018) sits at over 22 weeks. This is a weird recovery.pic.twitter.com/t3MjYAwIpc

        3 replies . 7 retweets 11 likes
      3. Trevor Tombe‏ @trevortombe 20h20 hours ago
        Replying to @RonKneebone

        Though, the main point of the original tweet was that the recovery exists. Some won't even grant that much. And presume the Dec FT drop proves it doesn't. (Agree with you completely on the importance of unemployment duration.)

        1 reply . 0 retweets 6 likes
      4. Ron Kneebone‏ @RonKneebone 20h20 hours ago
        Replying to @trevortombe

        Agree. Stubbornly high unemployment duration and social assistance caseloads suggest it is not the usual sort of recovery. I point this out not to cast doubt on existence of recovery but to suggest more effort be put toward understanding policy implications of underlying dynamics

        1 reply . 1 retweet 9 likes
      5. Trevor Tombe‏ @trevortombe 19h19 hours ago
        Replying to @RonKneebone

        Certainly. Part of a very broad question in many regions/countries too. US duration hasn't returned to pre fin-crisis levels, for example, despite its recovery. I don't know the research literature on this, or how it informs Alberta's situation, though.pic.twitter.com/T83XVMRqUC

        2 replies . 1 retweet 4 likes
      6. Ron Kneebone‏ @RonKneebone 18h18 hours ago
        Replying to @trevortombe

        Interesting! Similar graph for Canada shows far lower duration following fin crisis. These are again 3-month MA. Data not seasonally adjusted. Duration in Canada and AB seem to be moving in opposite directions. Cansim Table 14-10-0056-01pic.twitter.com/4gWqXoqsx3

        2 replies . 0 retweets 1 like
      7. Trevor Tombe‏ @trevortombe 18h18 hours ago
        Replying to @RonKneebone

        Wow, that's completely different. Puzzling.

        1 reply . 1 retweet 1 like
      8. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. Brad Ferguson  🇨🇦‏ @CANADA_FERG 23h23 hours ago
        Replying to @trevortombe

        Trevor, I’m on the road again today and could use your help. Do you have a similar chart for full time employment in traditional private sector vs public sector (public admin, health, education) since the beginning of the recession?

        1 reply . 0 retweets 8 likes
      3. Trevor Tombe‏ @trevortombe 18h18 hours ago
        Replying to @CANADA_FERG

        You bet, but note this is not just full-time but all employment (splitting full and part-time requires the underlying microdata and more work than I'm willing to put in ;)pic.twitter.com/nI9LoRlBHQ

        1 reply . 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. Brad Ferguson  🇨🇦‏ @CANADA_FERG 12h12 hours ago
        Replying to @trevortombe

        Truly appreciate it, @trevortombe. Thank you, and I owe you one.

        0 replies . 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. gnomeoffender‏ @gnomeoffender 22h22 hours ago
        Replying to @trevortombe @SeedyRoads

        Could we see a graph on oil jobs versus solar/renewable jobs and subsidies given to both. More meaningful that just lumped together.

        1 reply . 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. Trevor Tombe‏ @trevortombe 22h22 hours ago
        Replying to @gnomeoffender

        The above graphic is for the economy as a whole. It isn't about oil vs solar.

        1 reply . 0 retweets 4 likes
      4. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. APachon‏ @A_Pachon_ 17h17 hours ago
        Replying to @trevortombe

        It may be error, but may be not. Unadjusted data shows losses were concentrated in construction and public administration. The data may reflect actual trends, especially since both sectors also lost jobs in Oct. It's consistent with the decline in construction permits too. #ablegpic.twitter.com/3H598tqqN5

        1 reply . 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Trevor Tombe‏ @trevortombe 17h17 hours ago
        Replying to @A_Pachon_

        Interesting. The seasonally adjusted numbers are at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190104/t006a-eng.htm … At this level, though, margins of error are high. For construction in AB, 95% ci is +/-9,600.

        1 reply . 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. APachon‏ @A_Pachon_ 16h16 hours ago
        Replying to @trevortombe

        Yes. Interesting. Taking into account the SE, it is possible that the construction sector has not recovered at all. All variation in the sector since Aug. 2017 is roughly within the margin of error. Flat trend. July 2017, btw, was the bottom of the recession in this sector.

        0 replies . 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Justin Whitefish‏ @FinsUpSailor 14h14 hours ago
        Replying to @trevortombe

        A big gain in part time, self employed and minimum wage jobs. And wasn't it you who pointed out the massive margin of error by Statscan? The "recovery" in Alberta is phony and everyone knows it!

        2 replies . 5 retweets 5 likes
      3. Dr. Kevin Peterson  🇨🇦 🇺🇸‏ @policy_robot 14h14 hours ago
        Replying to @FinsUpSailor @trevortombe

        Don't forget Fake government jobs

        1 reply . 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Justin Whitefish‏ @FinsUpSailor 14h14 hours ago
        Replying to @policy_robot @trevortombe

        Ya I saw an ad a while back. Gov of Alberta was looking for a painter..Master Painter but had to have a degree in Sociology too...paying $140K. Tailored for someone specific.

        0 replies . 2 retweets 2 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. timothy chu‏ @timothy_chu 22h22 hours ago
        Replying to @trevortombe

        Take note @jkenney. But I guess you don’t really care about facts. #ableg.

        1 reply . 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Tweet unavailable
      4. shawn green‏ @shawncamerongr1 20h20 hours ago
        Replying to @BrockWarkentin @timothy_chu and

        Great graphs! It pains me to say it but salaries were getting out of control in the oil patch. I know it's not a popular opinion but the correction put the employer back in the driver's seat, some areas have become more efficient. Like it or not technology will displace more.

        3 replies . 0 retweets 3 likes
      5. Tweet unavailable
      6. shawn green‏ @shawncamerongr1 18h18 hours ago
        Replying to @BrockWarkentin @timothy_chu and

        As much as I do not agree with our current Govt's, the pipeline issue (reliance on the US, diversify markets) is a 20-30 year old problem that has failed to be addressed. The culmination is today's reality Our current govt's do need to get their shite together and get it done.

        0 replies . 0 retweets 2 likes
      7. End of conversation

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