Unfortunately, the duration of unemployment is moving upward again. Using a 3-month moving average it now (as of December 2018) sits at over 22 weeks. This is a weird recovery.pic.twitter.com/t3MjYAwIpc
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Unfortunately, the duration of unemployment is moving upward again. Using a 3-month moving average it now (as of December 2018) sits at over 22 weeks. This is a weird recovery.pic.twitter.com/t3MjYAwIpc
Though, the main point of the original tweet was that the recovery exists. Some won't even grant that much. And presume the Dec FT drop proves it doesn't. (Agree with you completely on the importance of unemployment duration.)
Agree. Stubbornly high unemployment duration and social assistance caseloads suggest it is not the usual sort of recovery. I point this out not to cast doubt on existence of recovery but to suggest more effort be put toward understanding policy implications of underlying dynamics
Certainly. Part of a very broad question in many regions/countries too. US duration hasn't returned to pre fin-crisis levels, for example, despite its recovery. I don't know the research literature on this, or how it informs Alberta's situation, though.pic.twitter.com/T83XVMRqUC
Interesting! Similar graph for Canada shows far lower duration following fin crisis. These are again 3-month MA. Data not seasonally adjusted. Duration in Canada and AB seem to be moving in opposite directions. Cansim Table 14-10-0056-01pic.twitter.com/4gWqXoqsx3
Wow, that's completely different. Puzzling.
Trevor, I’m on the road again today and could use your help. Do you have a similar chart for full time employment in traditional private sector vs public sector (public admin, health, education) since the beginning of the recession?
You bet, but note this is not just full-time but all employment (splitting full and part-time requires the underlying microdata and more work than I'm willing to put in ;)pic.twitter.com/nI9LoRlBHQ
Truly appreciate it, @trevortombe. Thank you, and I owe you one.
Could we see a graph on oil jobs versus solar/renewable jobs and subsidies given to both. More meaningful that just lumped together.
The above graphic is for the economy as a whole. It isn't about oil vs solar.
It may be error, but may be not. Unadjusted data shows losses were concentrated in construction and public administration. The data may reflect actual trends, especially since both sectors also lost jobs in Oct. It's consistent with the decline in construction permits too. #ablegpic.twitter.com/3H598tqqN5
Interesting. The seasonally adjusted numbers are at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190104/t006a-eng.htm … At this level, though, margins of error are high. For construction in AB, 95% ci is +/-9,600.
Yes. Interesting. Taking into account the SE, it is possible that the construction sector has not recovered at all. All variation in the sector since Aug. 2017 is roughly within the margin of error. Flat trend. July 2017, btw, was the bottom of the recession in this sector.
A big gain in part time, self employed and minimum wage jobs. And wasn't it you who pointed out the massive margin of error by Statscan? The "recovery" in Alberta is phony and everyone knows it!
Don't forget Fake government jobs
Ya I saw an ad a while back. Gov of Alberta was looking for a painter..Master Painter but had to have a degree in Sociology too...paying $140K. Tailored for someone specific.
Great graphs! It pains me to say it but salaries were getting out of control in the oil patch. I know it's not a popular opinion but the correction put the employer back in the driver's seat, some areas have become more efficient. Like it or not technology will displace more.
As much as I do not agree with our current Govt's, the pipeline issue (reliance on the US, diversify markets) is a 20-30 year old problem that has failed to be addressed. The culmination is today's reality Our current govt's do need to get their shite together and get it done.
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