Theory: Engineers are never “done” getting better at time estimation. As soon as you get “better”, you’re asked to estimate bigger, more complex, more ambiguous projects, and you have to level up all over again.
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Which is to say, in my experience novelty tends to be less of a factor than hidden complexity.
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https://m.imgur.com/t/rep_ost/rQIb4Vw … is a pretty good metaphor or programming
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I often have the experience that the prep that I find I need to do in order to do something is 10x the cost of the thing, but then it ends up paying off by making 9 other things trivial. And if I know about all 10 things up front, there’s a bulk discount on the prep.
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I strongly believe source code visualization, reporting and exploration tools will make prep much much cheaper especially when you have rich type systems. That & the same but at runtime will guaranteed make software cheaper faster and more fun.
End of conversation
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