1. Notes on survivalism: I don’t think that survivialism is a viable option in during a collapse, mainly due to the middle class and isolated nature of survivalists who enjoy “prepping” as a hobby. Who would excel during a collapse?
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2. The answer is criminal gangs. When civil order collapses it is nearly always the gangs who take over the basic functions of government and economy. Why is this? The gangs are already prepared to engage in limited violence and deception to achieve their goals.
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3. In fact, they know how to go just far enough in their violence to achieve their goals without going too far. They are already militias in embryo with territories and so on. Further, the real problem during collapse is not raw materials or food. Storing these is a waste of time
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4. The problem during a collapse is that, as with Horn of Africa famines, the signalling and communication networks to transport good break down. Whose signalling & communication networks are anti-fragile? The answer is criminal gangs.
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5. In a crisis, these will be the people who will always “know someone” who can get you something & deliver the goods. Years of running black markets mean they can do this. They have connections and the ability to form markets in adverse conditions.
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6. The middle class “preppers” will either be self-sufficient or in a small community. They will not necessarily be plugged into a network. They will not “know the right people”. They will feel awkward or refuse to bribe or steal. They have little experience of violence.
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7. They will not always use it when required. So, who will survive? The criminal gangs. They always survive and thrive in a crisis.
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