1. Scenario analysis Russia vs. US war around 2025: Trump is reelected. The 8 years of his administration is mark by growing ethnic conciousness. US politics increasingly becomes overtly racialised and ethnicised. Public trust in institutions outside the military plummets.
2. Trump’s successor Rep candidate is beaten in a wafer thin and heavily contested election. She is a relatively young Latin-American politician with little experience in government. She came to political maturity sincerely believing that “Russia controls the US government”.
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3. Political infighting and chaos ensues in Washington as the new administration attempts to purge “white supremacists” from the government. Mass resignations and chaos engulf the State Department and associated institutions.
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4. Internally the US faces widespread but containable civil disorder as people take revenge on the Trumpers who persecuted them, as they see it, during the administration. Trumpers fight back sporadically.
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5. Meanwhile, in Eastern Europe, an aging Putin (now insecure as younger rivals jockey to take his crown) is fencing with the Baltic States and Poland. A small miscalculation at a border town is seized on by the US president.
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6. In the midst of domestic confusion and profound mistrust (she thinks Russia has subverted her bureaucracy), she orders a military response that is much firmer than required. Putin, mentally slower and hemmed in at home, responds in kind. Military escalation follows.
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7. Result: US vs. Russia war. How likely is this? Now that I’ve written it out, more probable than I would have thought.
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End of conversation
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