Politics is a field where knowing more about the subject makes you weaker at predicting outcomes. The man who notices how many signs a candidate has in front gardens is better at knowing who’ll win a constituency, even if he thinks Thatcher and Pol Pot were in the same party.
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I remember driving through Ohio in summer of 2016 and noticing the multitude of Trump signs compared with the trickle of Clinton ones... I think that was when I first started to believe he could actually win.
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