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tomtom_m's profile
Tom Moultrie
Tom Moultrie
Tom Moultrie
@tomtom_m

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Tom Moultrie

@tomtom_m

Professor of demography at UCT; cricket; politics. Analyst of South African Covid testing data and excess deaths (2020-)

Cape Town, South Africa
Joined February 2009

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    1. Tom Moultrie‏ @tomtom_m 19 Dec 2021

      A series of mini-thoughts for a Sunday afternoon. South Africa vs. Rest of the World - the Omicron Edition. 1) We are pretty confident that Gauteng, the province at the South African Omicron epicentre is past its peak in terms of proportion of tests returning positive.

      57 replies 423 retweets 1,516 likes
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    2. Tom Moultrie‏ @tomtom_m 19 Dec 2021

      2) Despite massive number of cases (and incredibly high PTP: in the week to 11Dec, in Gauteng an ALL-TIME high of 38.7% - and an intra-week daily high of 41% when looking at PCR tests only), we have seen relatively few hospitalisations and deaths.

      1 reply 50 retweets 441 likes
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    3. Tom Moultrie‏ @tomtom_m 19 Dec 2021

      3) It really *does seem* as if South Africa, my country, will escape relatively unscathed in this wave. None of that is particularly new. But other things gnaw at me.

      2 replies 40 retweets 468 likes
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    4. Tom Moultrie‏ @tomtom_m 19 Dec 2021

      4) Excess natural deaths as of 11 Dec were 278 000 as per our weekly @MRCza report. https://www.samrc.ac.za/reports/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa?bc=254 … We have also been of the view that between 85 and 95% of these ED, over the entire course of the epidemic, are related to Covid (https://genus.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s41118-021-00134-6 …)

      2 replies 48 retweets 332 likes
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    5. Tom Moultrie‏ @tomtom_m 19 Dec 2021

      5) So that means, perhaps 250 000 Covid deaths since Autumn 2020. (cf: the official number of barely 90 000). Expressed per million, that is an 'unofficial Covid deaths' of around 4 200.

      4 replies 40 retweets 283 likes
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    6. Tom Moultrie‏ @tomtom_m 19 Dec 2021

      6) From Worldometer (yes, I *know* - I am pulling approximates here), the UK is around 2 150 -- roughly HALF the unofficial SA number

      3 replies 20 retweets 196 likes
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    7. Tom Moultrie‏ @tomtom_m 19 Dec 2021

      7) I am struck by this comparison from OWID. Their SA data are ours (but all-cause not natural-only). And we can see towards of the beta wave, excess deaths in the two countries were of a kind.pic.twitter.com/9DFE8o3XUx

      5 replies 31 retweets 224 likes
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    8. Tom Moultrie‏ @tomtom_m 19 Dec 2021

      8) But the UK had begun to vaccinate extensively by then. Our programme only got going in July, by which time Delta was on us.

      3 replies 13 retweets 208 likes
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      Tom Moultrie‏ @tomtom_m 19 Dec 2021

      9) SO. WHAT IF ... South Africa's 'light escape' (in the context of a QUARTER OF A MILLION excess natural deaths) is _in no small measure because_ we 'bought' that present at horrendous cost during past waves.

      5:35 AM - 19 Dec 2021
      • 133 Retweets
      • 692 Likes
      • Elisabeth Meehan (Vaxxed & boosted) Carol Green Sydney C. Morgan Rodrigo Quiroga GranJota _ michael Gerard Martí Bidatzi Dr. Peixins 🦠🔬 🏳‍🌈
      20 replies 133 retweets 692 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Tom Moultrie‏ @tomtom_m 19 Dec 2021

          10) No, I do not have the answers. Yes, I am deeply grateful by what we are seeing here. But, I am appalled by how the South African Experience (TM) is being used to weaponise against unfolding events in other countries ("don't intervene, it's a nothingburger" says my bete noire)

          12 replies 98 retweets 665 likes
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        3. Tom Moultrie‏ @tomtom_m 19 Dec 2021

          11) Until we have a better sense of the issues raised here (esp in #9), premature celebration is uncalled for outside of SA; and in SA, perhaps we should spare a thought for the families of 250 000 of our fellow citizens whose loved ones will not be joining them for Christmas.

          10 replies 89 retweets 841 likes
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        4. Tom Moultrie‏ @tomtom_m 19 Dec 2021

          11) Careful data analysis, and a deep appreciation of local knowledge and specificities, coupled with global action (as argued with @GYamey and @BillHanage last week: https://time.com/6128506/omicron-covid-19-how-to-fight/ …) may yet get us through this.

          16 replies 48 retweets 396 likes
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        5. End of conversation
        1. Deus Abscondis‏ @Deus_Abscondis 19 Dec 2021
          Replying to @tomtom_m

          Survivorship bias.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        2. Clare Miller‏ @cfgmiller 19 Dec 2021
          Replying to @tomtom_m

          Just checking I've got your point - are you saying that perhaps fewer died recently because so many of the more vulnerable already did?

          2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
        3. edmond beale‏ @serenelyjoyful 19 Dec 2021
          Replying to @cfgmiller @tomtom_m

          in a nutshell.... also (point not made) those who survived earlier infection built defences .... esp T Cell that (it seems) work reasonably well against omicron

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Markoni Bartoni‏ @MarkoniBartoni 19 Dec 2021
          Replying to @tomtom_m

          and we “bought” the present, not out of a clever policy strategy by govt., but because the majority of South Africans live in circumstances that either makes social distancing impossible or they rightly viewed the risk of getting Covid as a lesser risk than the risk of no food.

          0 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
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        1. Marvin‏ @marvin_1_0_1 19 Dec 2021
          Replying to @tomtom_m

          This has only just occurred to you? We've been talking about this in the UK. You just had a deadly wave for delta which wiped out a load of susceptible people, which we didn't have. It will annoy me if these SA doctors who've been saying we shouldn't worry hadn't considered this.

          0 replies 2 retweets 6 likes
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        1. Pam Renaud‏ @PamRenaud 19 Dec 2021
          Replying to @tomtom_m

          Thank you @tomtom_m been wondering when this horrendous cost would be acknowledged by the "let it rip" brigade.....

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. RSchwarz‏ @Mrs_Schwarzski 19 Dec 2021
          Replying to @tomtom_m

          I do have a bit of a pushback on this. I’m in the US, near NYC and we got hit HARD early on. We were the epicenter of Covid in the US. And when delta came we had barely a nibble at the deaths. It could be Covid killed everyone it could but I feel like it’s more likely the Vax

          2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        3. RSchwarz‏ @Mrs_Schwarzski 19 Dec 2021
          Replying to @Mrs_Schwarzski @tomtom_m

          Even with all the deaths early on, we still only infected a fraction of what Omicron will infect. So I’m curious, but hopeful.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. Show replies

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