A series of mini-thoughts for a Sunday afternoon. South Africa vs. Rest of the World - the Omicron Edition. 1) We are pretty confident that Gauteng, the province at the South African Omicron epicentre is past its peak in terms of proportion of tests returning positive.
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10) No, I do not have the answers. Yes, I am deeply grateful by what we are seeing here. But, I am appalled by how the South African Experience (TM) is being used to weaponise against unfolding events in other countries ("don't intervene, it's a nothingburger" says my bete noire)
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11) Until we have a better sense of the issues raised here (esp in #9), premature celebration is uncalled for outside of SA; and in SA, perhaps we should spare a thought for the families of 250 000 of our fellow citizens whose loved ones will not be joining them for Christmas.
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11) Careful data analysis, and a deep appreciation of local knowledge and specificities, coupled with global action (as argued with
@GYamey and@BillHanage last week: https://time.com/6128506/omicron-covid-19-how-to-fight/ …) may yet get us through this.Show this thread
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Survivorship bias.
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Just checking I've got your point - are you saying that perhaps fewer died recently because so many of the more vulnerable already did?
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in a nutshell.... also (point not made) those who survived earlier infection built defences .... esp T Cell that (it seems) work reasonably well against omicron
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and we “bought” the present, not out of a clever policy strategy by govt., but because the majority of South Africans live in circumstances that either makes social distancing impossible or they rightly viewed the risk of getting Covid as a lesser risk than the risk of no food.
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This has only just occurred to you? We've been talking about this in the UK. You just had a deadly wave for delta which wiped out a load of susceptible people, which we didn't have. It will annoy me if these SA doctors who've been saying we shouldn't worry hadn't considered this.
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Thank you
@tomtom_m been wondering when this horrendous cost would be acknowledged by the "let it rip" brigade.....Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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I do have a bit of a pushback on this. I’m in the US, near NYC and we got hit HARD early on. We were the epicenter of Covid in the US. And when delta came we had barely a nibble at the deaths. It could be Covid killed everyone it could but I feel like it’s more likely the Vax
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Even with all the deaths early on, we still only infected a fraction of what Omicron will infect. So I’m curious, but hopeful.
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