Why did opinions change on gay rights in the period 85 - 05 in your view? Certainly wasn’t the governments of the period...
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Replying to @tomdupresh @ukonward
The very rapid change in UK median opinion mostly happened after 1999 if you were to check the BSA data series. Certainly Stonewall and Eastenders and some elected politicians (eg GLC) played an important role prior to that when it was a more contentious issue.
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Replying to @sundersays @ukonward
Agreed, but the mass opinion change relied on a large amount of legwork and preparation put in during the early period. I think our immigration debate is where France’s was in about 2010, you’ve had past populist successes but they haven’t been built on properly... yet
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Replying to @tomdupresh @ukonward
Attitudes in France & Britain significantly different. National id of ethnic minorities is one major differences. Your earlier claim only recent migrants tend to identify as British is simply wrong: 8/10 people do express pride in British identity, as well as Eng/Scot/Welsh
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Replying to @sundersays @ukonward
Almost the perfect Leave / Remain divide, cant remember the exact correlation but it’s very strong. English over British was one of the strongest predictors for a Leave votepic.twitter.com/Golr508Crf
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And of course, also very closely tracks the percentage migrant background. Which also tracks age to some extent; given the different demographics of each population, which probably explains at least some of your “generational shift” effect on immigration.
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Replying to @tomdupresh @ukonward
it does not explain that much of it. You will be very disappointed when you look up beliefs about English identity in terms of ethnic/civic boundaries among the under 35s. It is why your "European" frame for attacking the Mayor of London is going to fall flat.
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Replying to @sundersays @ukonward
Numbers on that? You’ve dodged all my progress questions. I have a feeling you just think there’s a historical trend towards your ideas that happens by itself; this is false. Where is the equivalent youth movement to GI in favour of mass migration?
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Replying to @tomdupresh @ukonward
I am not a believer in linear progress or demography as destiny. Have argued the opposite as most people actually following identity debates/evidence seriously would know.
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I am surprised you attribute views to people who have a prominent track record of arguing the opposite. You are going to struggle as a hipster racist thought leader if you are paddling so much in the shallow end of the identity evidence
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Also I think I’m as new to your work as you are to our group. Like I said I’m looking through now, but I don’t know all your past positions yet sorry
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