Tomas Pueyo

@tomaspueyo

Interested in how humans think and how to improve their lives: Psychology, Design, Politics,

Silicon Valley
Vrijeme pridruživanja: ožujak 2009.

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  1. prije 6 sati
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  2. 30. sij

    Language was a continuum in Middle Ages. It gradually changed from the romance of the Netherlands to Portugal, Germanic from Holland to Vienna. The printing press created our monolithic languages.

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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    28. sij

    Kids go to school thinking they’re going to be astronauts or lawyers or entertainers, never knowing that most jobs are just sending emails until you die

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  4. 29. sij

    It might take 10 years, 100 or 1000. But it will happen. It’s the inexorable law of progress.

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  5. 29. sij

    This is what will keep China back, and what eventually will push it to change.

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  6. 29. sij

    By definition, free speech is the ability to criticize anything you want. When you don’t have free speech, you can’t criticize things. And when you can’t criticize things, you can’t improve them.

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  7. 29. sij

    And the only way to unleash that productivity is free speech

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  8. 29. sij

    With slower growth and underperforming rivals, Chinese citizens will pressure the government to be more productive

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  9. 29. sij

    Meanwhile, other countries will pass China in GDP per capita.

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  10. 29. sij

    China will eventually become the biggest economy in the world, but then growth will slow down, and its economy will hover over at a % of the US’s per capita GDP

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  11. 29. sij

    Outliers are just parasitic countries that take advantage of bigger countries through taxation advantages that don’t scale (Eg, Luxembourg, Switzerland)

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  12. 29. sij

    The farther you are from the US’s productivity, the bigger the gap with its GDP per capita.

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  13. 29. sij

    Most companies that catch up with the West, in fact, don’t pass ~80% of the US’s GDP per capita. The better ones (Eg, Japan, UK) get closer to the US’s productivity, while the less productive ones (Eg, Italy, Russia) don’t.

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  14. 29. sij

    But their economy will be capped at ~60% of the US’s GDP per capita, because they will never be as efficient as the US.

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  15. 29. sij

    Back to today: China is growing by grabbing ideas (tech) from outside. They will become the biggest economy in the world because they have the biggest population and their gdp per capita is catching up with the rest of the developed world.

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  16. 29. sij

    This happened to Japan and China in the 19th century, the Ottoman Empire in the 20th, the Roman Empire...

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  17. 29. sij

    But the ideas survive. In other places. And thanks to them, these places thrive. And eventually surpass the hegemonic countries that stop developing.

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  18. 29. sij

    Sometimes, when countries gain undisputed power, they opt out of some of these ideas: Japan, once United, forgot guns in the Tokugawa period;China’s Ming dynasty threw the country backwards by closing off to foreigners and exploration just at the dawn of the age of discovery...

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  19. 29. sij

    Better ideas always spread: agriculture, money, water mills, compass, paper, gunpowder, printing press, internet...

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  20. 29. sij

    China will eventually have free speech. Here’s why.

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