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Using the PA Date of Birth dataset, we can see day by day mail returns incredibly correlated across the state, within large counties, across age groups. I'm not sure how you'd get these correlations without a central group drawing from voter records&filling out ballots en masse https://twitter.com/toad_spotted/status/1324896553459478536 …pic.twitter.com/uSzFZ17Xa5
Just another day of highly random social processes and individual freely-taken decisions producing perfect correlations at a day-by-day level precisely in a subset of large targeted counties in one swing statepic.twitter.com/7MX9cqEJVa
Here's another way of thinking of patterns in the previous graph: here are two adjacent, predominantly white, affluent (both median income $99k)Philadelphia suburbs. Patterns in ballot returns dramatically different, highly concentrated in individual days,especially for elderly.pic.twitter.com/ZIC3BBscoD
The age distribution of these peak weeks are pretty symmetrical: the same age bands who were most likely to send in their ballots early in Chester County are most likely to send their ballots in from October 17-24 in Montgomery County.pic.twitter.com/fuVaC3ruxy
In Allegheny County, ballots were overwhelmingly returned early across every age range, including young voters; in Westmoreland, ballots were returned overwhelmingly from October 17 through 24th.pic.twitter.com/dcttiXyk2P
This is not simply a matter of ballots being mailed to voters very early in Allegheny County: we can see that the lag between ballots being mailed and being returned was also shorter, as well as highly concentrated on individual days.pic.twitter.com/OrBWbda4lu
The 5 peak days of returns are tilted towards older voters in both Allegheny + next-door Westmoreland; but when you look at Westmoreland's age distribution on *Allegheny's* top 5 days of returns, +Allegheny's age distribution on *Westmoreland's* top five days- totally different.pic.twitter.com/FPNQki1H58
That is (previous tweet shows),there is a characteristic age distribution of the days in which the most ballots were being returned simultaneously: this age distribution isn't tied to a specific time of the month but something about all those votes being submitted simultaneously.
If we go to actual voter rolls for Allegheny County, (from https://www.pavoterservices.pa.gov/pages/purchasepafullvoterexport.aspx …) we see individual addresses (often of senior housing) highly concentrated on individual days, &% Democrat in batches from individual zip codes on individual days is concentrated in simple ratios.pic.twitter.com/x3Jd4YOgC7
Similarly, in Montgomery County, batches of ballots from individual zip codes on individual days of return are very often in simple ratios of registered Democrats, and are almost perfectly negatively correlated with Republican %, implying a static % of 3rd party & nonaffiliated .pic.twitter.com/1piNpUg5kk
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