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And here's the Benford's chi-squared tests from the firstdigit.ado stata package, for the early and late totals.pic.twitter.com/qDvqEBFvaG
So, here are four wards where early counts (as of 4 AM Wednesday morning) had fewer than 350 Biden votes but gained over 1300 Biden votes by afternoon. Ward 138, 177, 183, and 185. Maybe there's a simple story about why, apart from in person being lower than mail throughout.pic.twitter.com/wpIwh85G8a
To explain the (not great) variable names above: in Ward 138, Biden had 311 votes at 4 AM, 1773 votes at 3 PM, for a gain of 1462. in the same ward, Trump had 63 votes at 4 AM, 129 votes at 3 PM, for an increase of 66. That is, initial votes were 80% Biden, later votes 96% Biden.
This is Biden's % in early counted ballots versus Biden's % in the counts that were added after 3 AM yesterday.pic.twitter.com/UsjHOFeHji
Maybe because if you have a bunch of wards around 1000 voters, have a lot with 800 to 900 biden votes makes sense but the jorgensen votes are normally distributed around (let's say) 15?
Do Trump’s totals violate Benford’s law?
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