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toad_spotted's profile
Spotted Toad
Spotted Toad
Spotted Toad
@toad_spotted

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Spotted Toad

@toad_spotted

Perpetual titular councillor

Suburbia
spottedtoad.wordpress.com
Joined January 2016

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    Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted 10 Jun 2018

    Ah, let's check out how the people in my cohort did on the WORDSUM vocabulary test in the General Social Survey and how that relates to how many kids they've hadpic.twitter.com/5JMaHwgRO9

    3:30 PM - 10 Jun 2018
    • 26 Retweets
    • 114 Likes
    • Funkybewbs 🌲 Steffen Christensen John Mori 7 times fired crockett Garett Jones 🏛️ Emily Willoughby ice9
    16 replies 26 retweets 114 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted 11 Jun 2018

        The sample in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, which took the AFQT test when they were 15-23 in 1980, shows a more negative relationship for women than for men in number of children born by 2010-2014.pic.twitter.com/uvvmPSpZTp

        2 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted 11 Jun 2018

        The sample in the NLSY: 97, who were born in 1980-1984 and took the ASVAB Math and Reading test in 1999, shows a negative relationship for both men and women in number of children born by 2015.pic.twitter.com/JiPpIItpkE

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted 11 Jun 2018

        The NLSY: 97 distinguishes between resident and non-resident children; there's a very strong positive relationship between male ASVAB score as a teen and whether a man is living with his kids in his early 30s.pic.twitter.com/2hF03n50GJ

        0 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
        Show this thread
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Lyman Expand the House of Representatives Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 11 Jun 2018
        Replying to @toad_spotted

        I think 30-39 is partly biasing this? I'm not quite duplicating this....

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted 11 Jun 2018
        Replying to @lymanstoneky

        How do you mean?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Bruno Jahn‏ @foxyforecaster 11 Jun 2018
        Replying to @toad_spotted @lymanstoneky

        My guess is also that the smarter ones will on average have kids later, so lifetime birth numbers would not differ so dramatically.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted 11 Jun 2018
        Replying to @foxyforecaster @lymanstoneky

        That's definitely true, though there may be drawbacks to delaying too long, obv

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted 11 Jun 2018
        Replying to @toad_spotted @foxyforecaster @lymanstoneky

        For example, this is from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002; obviously this is pretty much about delaying children rather than expected TFR, but it's still a very strong relationship for a test given in 10th grade.pic.twitter.com/Pwb3FAMf70

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      7. Lyman Expand the House of Representatives Stone‏ @lymanstoneky 11 Jun 2018
        Replying to @toad_spotted @foxyforecaster

        that's like 90% about delay, not final outcome. For dysgenics, it's completed fertility or bust my man.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      8. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. Gianni‏ @AngloRemnant 10 Jun 2018
        Replying to @toad_spotted

        This one should come with sound effects.

        3 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
      3. Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted 10 Jun 2018
        Replying to @AngloRemnant

        WHEEE!

        0 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. menaquinone4‏ @menangahela 10 Jun 2018
        Replying to @toad_spotted

        this is so bad 10/10 on wordsum is not even that hard

        2 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
      3. menaquinone4‏ @menangahela 10 Jun 2018
        Replying to @menangahela @toad_spotted

        also this bucks historic trend of the negative fertility effects of iq being much worse in women no?

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted 10 Jun 2018
        Replying to @menangahela

        Yeah that’s what surprised me (in terms of historical data) but also seems totally correct given my intuitive sense of the world. Admittedly this is 30-39YO, but it’s bad if smart men are getting started at 42 regardless.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Ieshua Kynnyd‏ @OrigenOfSpices 11 Jun 2018
        Replying to @toad_spotted

        What are the median wordsum scores?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted 11 Jun 2018
        Replying to @OrigenOfSpices

        Median and Mean are both 6

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere 10 Jun 2018
        Replying to @toad_spotted

        Seriously? Those are some very big max-min ratios, > 3! I would have guessed maybe 1.5. Ah, this is in part birth delay...what it look like for 40-59 yr olds?

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted 11 Jun 2018
        Replying to @nowherenorthere

        See the next tweet, for the NLSY sample in their late 40s-50s. Different cohort though, so we'll have to wait to find out how much is just birth delay vs. genuine change in TFRs by group.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted 10 Jun 2018
        Replying to @joszefus

        Devil’s Interval S O U N D S in the deep

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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