As you know, decarbonization involves complex mix of socioeconomic, political, technical mechanisms. Researchers love to trace these. But we are often so awed by the complexity that we poo-poo purposeful interventions, or suggest narrow, discipline-specific answers 2/pic.twitter.com/djLsxYf6c9
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This piece calls for researchers to do better. We CAN identify generalizable patterns in a range of dynamic systems that help guide interventions. A straightforward way to start is to look for SIPs—which can be either “kicks” or “shifts”. 3/
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A “kick” is when a given system is close to a critical threshold and needs a nudge to flip from one equilibrium to another. 4/pic.twitter.com/m2ZuYKrxaV
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For example, we know that people support climate action, but only rarely vote on it. Political entrepreneurs like
@AOC w/#GreenNewDeal or@GretaThunberg w/#SchoolStrikes have the potential to boost salience enough to mobilize the latent majority and flip the equation 5/Prikaži ovu nit -
A “shift” is when you alter the rules of a given system to change its trajectory. In the political sphere we emphasize institutions and norms as the “rules of the game.” 6/pic.twitter.com/eXR5JxbsF9
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For example, the UK Climate Change Act alters future political contestation around decarbonization by institutionalizing a carbon budget and a trustee committee to oversee it. Paris Agreement allows for what I call ‘catalytic cooperation’ to emerge https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/publications/catalytic-cooperation … 7/pic.twitter.com/5baqdWxuJr
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The above are just a few illustrative examples from the politics side. Our
@oms_postcarbon project aims to identify less intuitive SIPs across a wide range of systems. I'm learning a huge amount from our cross-disciplinary team https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/research/programmes/post-carbon … 8/pic.twitter.com/Btw5y7qjh8
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Of course, a lot of research in many disciplines is driving in this direction. In PoliSci, our project found Bernstein +
@HoffmannMatt's fractal decarbonization very helpful;@greenprofgreen’s work shows why we need to attack complexity directly instead of skirting it 9/Prikaži ovu nit -
Taking complex systems seriously will make us better at researching solutions. For example, in the climate realm we are all slaves to integrated assessment models. But these struggle to incorporate the kinds of non-linear feedback effects we get from SIPs 10/pic.twitter.com/lfOwpxW7CS
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Final point. A massive challenge like decarbonization forces us to find new ways to manage our socio-economic, political, and technical systems. That’s going to surely require advancing the state of knowledge about how those systems work. It’s a great time to do a PhD! 11/11pic.twitter.com/nYBtzkkTZP
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