There are still major epistemological issues in underlying assessments of both #ISIS and #AlQaeda. Leadership hierarchies and chain-of-command are often obscured. For example, Osama bin Laden's active management role at the time of his death wasn't widely understood.
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At the beginning of the U.S.-led anti-ISIS campaign in 2014, the CIA estimated that ISIS "can muster between 20,000 and 31,500 fighters across Iraq and Syria." The bottom of that range is close to the top of the range offered now - more than 5 years later. https://www.cnn.com/2014/09/11/world/meast/isis-syria-iraq/index.html …
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@billroggio and I have been tracking estimates offered for the number of#AlQaeda fighters in Afghanistan for well more than a decade. There are still basic problems with the assessments offered. See this from 2016 -- as just one example:https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2016/04/us-military-admits-al-qaeda-is-stronger-in-afghanistan-than-previously-estimated.php …Prikaži ovu nit -
It is probably better to look at operational activity and other factors, rather than relying on estimated number of fighters. I'd treat estimated numbers as ballpark figures, at best, but sometimes not even as that.
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Also, there's been uncertainty concerning the identity of
#ISIS's new overall leader in the wake of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi's death. Officials think they know who he is, as has been reported, but there has been uncertainty with something as basic as that.https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/20/isis-leader-confirmed-amir-mohammed-abdul-rahman-al-mawli-al-salbi …Prikaži ovu nit
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The devil is in the criteria. Potential sources of support vs full time, capable & committed cadre. What pct is an external or extraterritorial threat? What is focused on their own tribal lands? But big numbers make better headlines. Jeffries is no Wendy Sherman.
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Recent conversation w/ USArmy researcher Army: why do you have two numbers here? Me: These are estimate ranges Army: So, why two numbers? Me: Er, "estimates" .... Army: Pick a number.
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Conduct a census for more accurate counting.
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Census will solve this
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Kinda like the number of Illegal Aliens in the United States....
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Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
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