Picture container depots at city edges and self-driving trucks shuttling between them. An extension of what’s already happening in ports.pic.twitter.com/RIXY8Mj6We
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Picture container depots at city edges and self-driving trucks shuttling between them. An extension of what’s already happening in ports.pic.twitter.com/RIXY8Mj6We
Over time, cars will be able to navigate the more complicated inner cities with their pedestrians, bikes, and other traffic. This is where things will get really interesting.
For one, more people will start using cars for trips than ever before, as the price will be low compared to other transport modes. We will run headlong into the Jevons paradox of improved efficiency causing usage increase. (Which makes the above $900b investment conservative)pic.twitter.com/cYY7MynviU
A big turning point will be once self-driving cars are cheaper than mass rail transport (tram, metro, train). The average per mile cost in the UK is £0.31 for cars vs £0.16 for trains now, so we need a 50% drop.
In the Netherlands, 10% of commuters take public transport and 50% go by car. In the United Kingdom, 15% go by train/bus and 70% by car. Roads will have to support 20% more cars if everyone would switch.pic.twitter.com/L5bi0iiRQG
The transport of choice for commuting changes dramatically if you look at cities instead of countries. In New York City, 60% go by public transport and 30% by car. In London, 50% take public transport and 30% go by car.pic.twitter.com/nq9BdZhnDo
Sharing platforms will likely get 30% of people to pool during peak hours through price incentives. Self-driving cars will also be able to drive much closer, more consistently, and faster. Which probably increases road throughput with another 50%.
The 30% carpooling and 50% road throughput increase should more than offset the 20% inter-city car usage increase. And cities will need a bit more work. Long live the roads we already have!pic.twitter.com/DSeBAEGwu2
The majority of public transport needs will be covered by car sharing platforms. Though there will still be a role for governments to incentivize coverage in low utilization/high-cost areas (i.e., rural).
classic, market takes the profitable routes & causes negative externalities, govt have to pick up the really expensive trips to ensure equity
Isn’t redistribution what the government does? Taxation of profitable endeavors and subsidy of underserved areas to ensure equitable outcomes. See unemployment benefits, healthcare, etc. What alternative do you suggest?
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