People want transport to be: Cheaper Faster More reliable Safer Door-to-door Private Less polluting (In assumed order of importance)
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Combined with tech trends: Electric motors will develop faster than gasoline ones. Batteries will store more power & become cheaper. Computers will be faster, smaller & cheaper. Cameras will be better, smaller & cheaper. Connectivity will be faster, cheaper & wide-spread.pic.twitter.com/BKdBx07bo8
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See the keywords there? Faster and cheaper. Much of it driven by the production scale of smartphones. It’s good to keep in mind William Gibson’s advice about this all: “The future is already here — it’s just not very evenly distributed.”pic.twitter.com/V2CYERgySz
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Many of these wants and trends point to a clear direction: Self-driving, electric cars. For the sake of this discussion, we will assume full autonomy (level 5).pic.twitter.com/ChDIPMD0jC
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Nobody agrees on a timeline yet, but the benefits of self-driving cars are obvious and the investments serious. These will be a thing. Well, maybe not the Google pods.pic.twitter.com/8x2MMlxgMQ
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Electric cars have fewer moving parts, are more flexible as they are fully software-controlled, quieter, and more fuel cost efficient compared to gasoline cars.pic.twitter.com/67pXIefcSf
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Self-driving cars will be safer, can go faster, drive closer to other cars, optimize fuel usage better, free up parking space in the city, and free up time compared to human-controlled cars.
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“Software is eating the world“ (Marc Andreessen) and self-driving cars are a perfect example of that. Much of what will make a future car successful will be determined by how good the software is and the software companies of the world have noticed.
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The software companies’ bet is that the value in the production chain will shift from manufacturing metal boxes to building software systems. Transport is a much larger business than phones (Apple) or advertising (Google).pic.twitter.com/tHzks8mLay
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Replying to @thijsniks
Be interested to hear your thoughts on the economic apocalypse as all those driving jobs go away.
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I haven’t made up my mind about that, though I find @cgpgrey’s case compelling https://youtu.be/7Pq-S557XQU
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