Once regulation is adjusted, there will be a transition phase with mixed manual/self-driving traffic. This will make self-driving look worse than it really is, because the manual traffic is less predictable. We honestly can’t do much about it (see investments needed above).
-
Show this thread
-
Trucks will be the first ones to go autonomous, because their usage can be limited to the relatively easy confines of highways and companies are willing to put up with those limitations.pic.twitter.com/C0QdEUyOpf
1 reply 2 retweets 4 likesShow this thread -
Picture container depots at city edges and self-driving trucks shuttling between them. An extension of what’s already happening in ports.pic.twitter.com/RIXY8Mj6We
1 reply 1 retweet 7 likesShow this thread -
Over time, cars will be able to navigate the more complicated inner cities with their pedestrians, bikes, and other traffic. This is where things will get really interesting.
1 reply 0 retweets 4 likesShow this thread -
For one, more people will start using cars for trips than ever before, as the price will be low compared to other transport modes. We will run headlong into the Jevons paradox of improved efficiency causing usage increase. (Which makes the above $900b investment conservative)pic.twitter.com/cYY7MynviU
1 reply 0 retweets 4 likesShow this thread -
A big turning point will be once self-driving cars are cheaper than mass rail transport (tram, metro, train). The average per mile cost in the UK is £0.31 for cars vs £0.16 for trains now, so we need a 50% drop.
2 replies 1 retweet 6 likesShow this thread -
In the Netherlands, 10% of commuters take public transport and 50% go by car. In the United Kingdom, 15% go by train/bus and 70% by car. Roads will have to support 20% more cars if everyone would switch.pic.twitter.com/L5bi0iiRQG
2 replies 1 retweet 5 likesShow this thread -
The transport of choice for commuting changes dramatically if you look at cities instead of countries. In New York City, 60% go by public transport and 30% by car. In London, 50% take public transport and 30% go by car.pic.twitter.com/nq9BdZhnDo
2 replies 6 retweets 19 likesShow this thread -
Sharing platforms will likely get 30% of people to pool during peak hours through price incentives. Self-driving cars will also be able to drive much closer, more consistently, and faster. Which probably increases road throughput with another 50%.
2 replies 1 retweet 2 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @thijsniks
I know
@BenedictEvans mentioned an imbalance of fleet size demand in peak vs off peak hours (everyone wants a car at 8am, no-one at 3am) being a blocker to utilisation. A parallel change in the importance of peak (breakdown of 9-5, more remote work, on demand) might mitigate.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
The 75% utilization I put up is optimistic, but I do think we will see a lot more people carpool as those trips will be a lot cheaper during peak demand. So more people in fewer cars.
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.
at
retweets