The software companies’ bet is that the value in the production chain will shift from manufacturing metal boxes to building software systems. Transport is a much larger business than phones (Apple) or advertising (Google).pic.twitter.com/tHzks8mLay
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The software companies’ bet is that the value in the production chain will shift from manufacturing metal boxes to building software systems. Transport is a much larger business than phones (Apple) or advertising (Google).pic.twitter.com/tHzks8mLay
Who will own these self-driving, electric cars? If you own one personally, it could drive you to work and back. A great experience, but parking it during the night and day is inefficient. The car could drive around other people during the 95% of the time you don’t use it.
The trouble is: What if you decide to go home unexpectedly and the car is on the other side of town? Either your car is never allowed to go far away (inefficient) or you will end up taking another self-driving car. So why would you own one yourself in the first place then?
Once you don’t drive in your own car anymore, you need access to a generic one anytime anywhere. That is the service car sharing platforms, like Uber, provide. They figure out how many people need a car when and where, and ensure there are enough cars to match it affordably.pic.twitter.com/RvfQVATj9A
That still doesn’t answer the question who owns the car. One option is that private people invest in a self-driving car and make it available on these sharing platforms. Who maintains and cleans those cars though?
Another option is that manufacturers or sharing platforms will own the cars, but it gets expensive fast. There are 260 million registered cars in the United States. If self-driving and sharing increases utilization from 5% to 75%, you need 18 million cars for the same usage.
75% utilization: every car occupied between 6am and midnight every day on average (assuming no empty trips to pick-up locations). Good luck!
I'll give you that 75% is somewhat optimistic, but the point holds: Fewer cars for the same number of people and miles, because utilization will fundamentally go up. Constant utilization should be possible between 06h00 and 21h00.pic.twitter.com/RmxdphgESA
Traffic is much lighter between 11am and 2pm, compared to 9am, indicating demand is not constant. Cars will also be empty on the way back to the suburbs to pick up the next set of people, limiting utilization to 70-80% even during heavy commute hours.
Thijs Niks Retweeted Thijs Niks
Price incentives should be enough to get people to carpool during peak hours, so 6-9am and 4-7pm cars will have more passengers than during the rest of the dayhttps://twitter.com/ThijsNiks/status/947113990580326400 …
Thijs Niks added,
But let’s for the sake of argument say that 75% utilization is too optimistic and we drop it to 50%. That’s still 10x more efficient.
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