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thijsniks's profile
Thijs Niks
Thijs Niks
Thijs Niks
@thijsniks

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Thijs Niks

@thijsniks

Product Manager for ☎️ at @WhatsApp / ❤️ retweets

San Francisco, CA
thijs.niks.nu
Joined February 2009

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    1. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      The software companies’ bet is that the value in the production chain will shift from manufacturing metal boxes to building software systems. Transport is a much larger business than phones (Apple) or advertising (Google).pic.twitter.com/tHzks8mLay

      3 replies 2 retweets 19 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      Who will own these self-driving, electric cars? If you own one personally, it could drive you to work and back. A great experience, but parking it during the night and day is inefficient. The car could drive around other people during the 95% of the time you don’t use it.

      1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      The trouble is: What if you decide to go home unexpectedly and the car is on the other side of town? Either your car is never allowed to go far away (inefficient) or you will end up taking another self-driving car. So why would you own one yourself in the first place then?

      1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
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    4. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      Once you don’t drive in your own car anymore, you need access to a generic one anytime anywhere. That is the service car sharing platforms, like Uber, provide. They figure out how many people need a car when and where, and ensure there are enough cars to match it affordably.pic.twitter.com/RvfQVATj9A

      1 reply 2 retweets 13 likes
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    5. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      That still doesn’t answer the question who owns the car. One option is that private people invest in a self-driving car and make it available on these sharing platforms. Who maintains and cleans those cars though?

      3 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
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    6. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      Another option is that manufacturers or sharing platforms will own the cars, but it gets expensive fast. There are 260 million registered cars in the United States. If self-driving and sharing increases utilization from 5% to 75%, you need 18 million cars for the same usage.

      3 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
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    7. Tatil Sever‏ @Tatil_Sever 2 Jan 2018
      Replying to @thijsniks

      75% utilization: every car occupied between 6am and midnight every day on average (assuming no empty trips to pick-up locations). Good luck!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 2 Jan 2018
      Replying to @Tatil_Sever

      I'll give you that 75% is somewhat optimistic, but the point holds: Fewer cars for the same number of people and miles, because utilization will fundamentally go up. Constant utilization should be possible between 06h00 and 21h00.pic.twitter.com/RmxdphgESA

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Tatil Sever‏ @Tatil_Sever 2 Jan 2018
      Replying to @thijsniks

      Traffic is much lighter between 11am and 2pm, compared to 9am, indicating demand is not constant. Cars will also be empty on the way back to the suburbs to pick up the next set of people, limiting utilization to 70-80% even during heavy commute hours.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 2 Jan 2018
      Replying to @Tatil_Sever

      Thijs Niks Retweeted Thijs Niks

      Price incentives should be enough to get people to carpool during peak hours, so 6-9am and 4-7pm cars will have more passengers than during the rest of the dayhttps://twitter.com/ThijsNiks/status/947113990580326400 …

      Thijs Niks added,

      Thijs Niks @thijsniks
      Sharing platforms will likely get 30% of people to pool during peak hours through price incentives. Self-driving cars will also be able to drive much closer, more consistently, and faster. Which probably increases road throughput with another 50%.
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 2 Jan 2018
      Replying to @thijsniks @Tatil_Sever

      But let’s for the sake of argument say that 75% utilization is too optimistic and we drop it to 50%. That’s still 10x more efficient.

      2:25 PM - 2 Jan 2018
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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