The 30% carpooling and 50% road throughput increase should more than offset the 20% inter-city car usage increase. And cities will need a bit more work. Long live the roads we already have!pic.twitter.com/DSeBAEGwu2
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The 30% carpooling and 50% road throughput increase should more than offset the 20% inter-city car usage increase. And cities will need a bit more work. Long live the roads we already have!pic.twitter.com/DSeBAEGwu2
The majority of public transport needs will be covered by car sharing platforms. Though there will still be a role for governments to incentivize coverage in low utilization/high-cost areas (i.e., rural).
Car sharing platforms can cover off-peak hours with regular capacity, and peak hours through carpooling and supply positioning. Demand super peaks, like natural disaster evacuations, are a challenge though. Will that be solved through capacity redistribution between areas?
Besides people switching from other modes of transport to cars, we will have new use cases for car transport. No more shuttling teenagers to football games. Elderly can see their grandchildren more often.
It’s also a question what people will do during these autonomous trips. Current rail transport (tram, metro, train) is likely a good comparison — especially for carpool trips. Expect lots of smartphone usage.pic.twitter.com/gi9tnbaV0R
As cars get smarter and accident rates go down, we will be able to get rid of airbags and seatbelts. This would completely open up in-car design and likely trend towards minimal and utilitarian furniture, as leasing companies optimize for cost.
Current public transport is likely the closest comparison for future self-driving car interiors. Low-cost, easy to maintain, and space efficient. All the things fleet operators love.pic.twitter.com/YQl4bLckTJ
Something else that will change: Self-driving cars don’t need parking spaces in urban areas. The cars will either be driving on the road or at the edge of the city for charging/cleanup.
It’s clear human driven cars will disappear from the roads over time. They will likely go the way of horses: Rich people toys with limited access to public roads and expensive to insure.
I'm surprised if this happens before 2050. The culture of owning a car is so strong and for many people it's more than just a vehicle, knowing that people fill it with their stuff and get emotionally attached.
Agreed. I’d guess fully self-driving cars by 2040 and only self-driving on a significant number of highways by 2060. My expectation is that the far majority of people will share by then, but cutting off access for the last few manual drivers will be sensitive.
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