Something else that will change: Self-driving cars don’t need parking spaces in urban areas. The cars will either be driving on the road or at the edge of the city for charging/cleanup.
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It’s clear human driven cars will disappear from the roads over time. They will likely go the way of horses: Rich people toys with limited access to public roads and expensive to insure.
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We are far in enough to do another recap: (1) 50% of the road will be digital. (2) Each car will make decisions on its own, as an integrated system will be too slow (to build). (3) Regulation will be slow and then rapid, as countries compete. […]
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[…] (4) Highway trucks will be the first autonomous vehicles. (5) Cars will outcompete rail transport on existing road capacity. (6) Carpooling will increase and car interiors will look like public transport. (7) Pricing will drive parking spaces to outside the city.
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I’m excited about what the future brings. Cheap, safe, and clean transport is a win for us all and self-driving electric cars seem the closest we will get to that. This will be the biggest change in transport since trains (1810), safety bikes (1885), and manual cars (1910).
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There are obviously (potential) flaws in this scenario. For one, the shared fleets need to be 99.9999% reliable for people to actually give up their cars.
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Another potential flaw is that battery technology improvements won’t keep pace with what we need. Or computers might not get to the point where they can truly react safely to all forms of traffic.
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It’s also possible that electric bikes will ride the wave of technology improvements and become the commuting modality of choice, before electric cars get to do it.
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End of the thread, for now. To be continued.pic.twitter.com/KOFO6PmmaY
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Replying to @thijsniks
What place do you see motorcycles having in this AV future? I'm sure they will get a lot of extra assisted safety features. For a motorcyclist though, driving itself is half the fun. Do you think manual drivers will be banned from most roads?
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Thijs Niks Retweeted Thijs Niks
The insurance premiums for manual driving will go up significantly as the risk pool gets more concentrated (perhaps offset a little by a risk reduction of cars hitting you). Over time, manual drivers will be banned from most public roads.https://twitter.com/ThijsNiks/status/947114678030946304 …
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