This does bring us to the point of regulation. Many observers point out that it might be the single largest stumbling block for full autonomy, though I’m hopeful.
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People and companies in your place will see the personal benefits of self-driving cars once a neighboring city, state, or country allows for it. That creates competitive pressure to update regulation. Governments are slow, but this will move faster than you think.
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Governments will want to certify that self-driving cars are “safe,” which honestly will be an industry itself. Most of these cars will use some form of machine learning, so we likely need simulations as opposed to formal verification.
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Once regulation is adjusted, there will be a transition phase with mixed manual/self-driving traffic. This will make self-driving look worse than it really is, because the manual traffic is less predictable. We honestly can’t do much about it (see investments needed above).
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Trucks will be the first ones to go autonomous, because their usage can be limited to the relatively easy confines of highways and companies are willing to put up with those limitations.pic.twitter.com/C0QdEUyOpf
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Picture container depots at city edges and self-driving trucks shuttling between them. An extension of what’s already happening in ports.pic.twitter.com/RIXY8Mj6We
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Over time, cars will be able to navigate the more complicated inner cities with their pedestrians, bikes, and other traffic. This is where things will get really interesting.
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For one, more people will start using cars for trips than ever before, as the price will be low compared to other transport modes. We will run headlong into the Jevons paradox of improved efficiency causing usage increase. (Which makes the above $900b investment conservative)pic.twitter.com/cYY7MynviU
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A big turning point will be once self-driving cars are cheaper than mass rail transport (tram, metro, train). The average per mile cost in the UK is £0.31 for cars vs £0.16 for trains now, so we need a 50% drop.
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Replying to @thijsniks
EU cities will tax fleet cars to move incentives and/or they will continue moving capacity to pedestrians. Intercity trips will be a different use case.
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Is your argument that tax per car mile will increase because that would incentivize walking and thus free up road space in cities to be used for something else? Any examples of that happening already?
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