Interesting thread. I don't think any low capacity mode will be able to scale to serve our cities without transit as this suggests, however.https://twitter.com/thijsniks/status/947107828317159424 …
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That's a really big question indeed. I haven't found convincing enough research either way yet. Let me know if you know of any!
Some have tried to look at it. Professors Emilio Frazzoli and Daniela Rus at MIT took initial looks. Here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/chunkamui/2014/04/17/mit-and-stanford-researchers-show-robotaxis-could-replace-private-cars-and-public-transit/#74042bee11db … and here: http://news.mit.edu/2016/how-ride-sharing-can-improve-traffic-save-money-and-help-environment-0104 … But both were high level takes and had a few flaws.
Most assessments make, IMHO, three basic errors: 1. Underestimating the extent of new induced trips. 2. Forgetting people's propensity to want to own their own thing. 3. Overestimating the potential congestion reduction on streets with AVs.
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