Once regulation is adjusted, there will be a transition phase with mixed manual/self-driving traffic. This will make self-driving look worse than it really is, because the manual traffic is less predictable. We honestly can’t do much about it (see investments needed above).
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Trucks will be the first ones to go autonomous, because their usage can be limited to the relatively easy confines of highways and companies are willing to put up with those limitations.pic.twitter.com/C0QdEUyOpf
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Picture container depots at city edges and self-driving trucks shuttling between them. An extension of what’s already happening in ports.pic.twitter.com/RIXY8Mj6We
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Over time, cars will be able to navigate the more complicated inner cities with their pedestrians, bikes, and other traffic. This is where things will get really interesting.
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For one, more people will start using cars for trips than ever before, as the price will be low compared to other transport modes. We will run headlong into the Jevons paradox of improved efficiency causing usage increase. (Which makes the above $900b investment conservative)pic.twitter.com/cYY7MynviU
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A big turning point will be once self-driving cars are cheaper than mass rail transport (tram, metro, train). The average per mile cost in the UK is £0.31 for cars vs £0.16 for trains now, so we need a 50% drop.
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In the Netherlands, 10% of commuters take public transport and 50% go by car. In the United Kingdom, 15% go by train/bus and 70% by car. Roads will have to support 20% more cars if everyone would switch.pic.twitter.com/L5bi0iiRQG
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Replying to @thijsniks
Netherlands also has more bikes then people. 60% of primary transportation is by bike in a city like Groningen. Bikes are also going electric which means bigger distances faster.
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Replying to @MarkV
Thijs Niks Retweeted Thijs Niks
Agreed. There is a scenario where electric bikes become the dominant form of transport in some cities. I pretty much expect rail transport to be replaced by a combination of electric bikes and carshttps://twitter.com/thijsniks/status/947115077169184769 …
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Replying to @thijsniks @MarkV
The forms that fall in this category today: walking and biking
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Yep. I see (technological/infrastructural) innovations in the biking industry that could lead to different usage. However, I'm not sure what that would look like for walking. Any thoughts?
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Replying to @thijsniks @MarkV
I think continuing to have land use still geared towards walking first. I think the technological component that can revolutionize walking is to get cars off of the streets of the most walkable of places.
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Thijs Niks Retweeted Thijs Niks
I would love that and do think it would increase the percentage of people who walk. Not sure if we can get from the current ~10% to double or triple that though, as there are hard limits on how many people can live near their work.https://twitter.com/ThijsNiks/status/947113987522596864 …
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