Once regulation is adjusted, there will be a transition phase with mixed manual/self-driving traffic. This will make self-driving look worse than it really is, because the manual traffic is less predictable. We honestly can’t do much about it (see investments needed above).
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Trucks will be the first ones to go autonomous, because their usage can be limited to the relatively easy confines of highways and companies are willing to put up with those limitations.pic.twitter.com/C0QdEUyOpf
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Picture container depots at city edges and self-driving trucks shuttling between them. An extension of what’s already happening in ports.pic.twitter.com/RIXY8Mj6We
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Over time, cars will be able to navigate the more complicated inner cities with their pedestrians, bikes, and other traffic. This is where things will get really interesting.
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For one, more people will start using cars for trips than ever before, as the price will be low compared to other transport modes. We will run headlong into the Jevons paradox of improved efficiency causing usage increase. (Which makes the above $900b investment conservative)pic.twitter.com/cYY7MynviU
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A big turning point will be once self-driving cars are cheaper than mass rail transport (tram, metro, train). The average per mile cost in the UK is £0.31 for cars vs £0.16 for trains now, so we need a 50% drop.
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In the Netherlands, 10% of commuters take public transport and 50% go by car. In the United Kingdom, 15% go by train/bus and 70% by car. Roads will have to support 20% more cars if everyone would switch.pic.twitter.com/L5bi0iiRQG
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Replying to @thijsniks
Netherlands also has more bikes then people. 60% of primary transportation is by bike in a city like Groningen. Bikes are also going electric which means bigger distances faster.
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Replying to @MarkV
Thijs Niks Retweeted Thijs Niks
Agreed. There is a scenario where electric bikes become the dominant form of transport in some cities. I pretty much expect rail transport to be replaced by a combination of electric bikes and carshttps://twitter.com/thijsniks/status/947115077169184769 …
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Replying to @thijsniks @MarkV
That would be a mistake to replace rail with AVs, rail is a more passively safe transit form while AVs are complex active systems with infinitely more complex ways of failing. This will always be true. We want efficient and as simple of transit systems as possible.
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My expectation is that we will be able to bring down the self-driving car safety incident rate down far enough that people consider it worth it. The current rate is rather dismal and plenty of us are ok with that. All these personal decisions are risk/reward balances.
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Replying to @thijsniks @MarkV
Agreed here as well. But again I’d like to see cities built so that you don’t need much more than a bike to get to something “far” away. The more walkable a place the more human and social it is.
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Thijs Niks Retweeted Thijs Niks
100% agreed. Optimizing cities for biking would be a huge win. I love my current bike commute in Amsterdam. I also realize there will remain a significant percentage of people who need something else.https://twitter.com/ThijsNiks/status/947113984536272898 …
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