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thijsniks's profile
Thijs Niks
Thijs Niks
Thijs Niks
@thijsniks

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Thijs Niks

@thijsniks

Product Manager for ☎️ at @WhatsApp / ❤️ retweets

San Francisco, CA
thijs.niks.nu
Joined February 2009

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    1. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      Once regulation is adjusted, there will be a transition phase with mixed manual/self-driving traffic. This will make self-driving look worse than it really is, because the manual traffic is less predictable. We honestly can’t do much about it (see investments needed above).

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      Trucks will be the first ones to go autonomous, because their usage can be limited to the relatively easy confines of highways and companies are willing to put up with those limitations.pic.twitter.com/C0QdEUyOpf

      1 reply 2 retweets 4 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      Picture container depots at city edges and self-driving trucks shuttling between them. An extension of what’s already happening in ports.pic.twitter.com/RIXY8Mj6We

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      Over time, cars will be able to navigate the more complicated inner cities with their pedestrians, bikes, and other traffic. This is where things will get really interesting.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      For one, more people will start using cars for trips than ever before, as the price will be low compared to other transport modes. We will run headlong into the Jevons paradox of improved efficiency causing usage increase. (Which makes the above $900b investment conservative)pic.twitter.com/cYY7MynviU

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      A big turning point will be once self-driving cars are cheaper than mass rail transport (tram, metro, train). The average per mile cost in the UK is £0.31 for cars vs £0.16 for trains now, so we need a 50% drop.

      2 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
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    7. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      In the Netherlands, 10% of commuters take public transport and 50% go by car. In the United Kingdom, 15% go by train/bus and 70% by car. Roads will have to support 20% more cars if everyone would switch.pic.twitter.com/L5bi0iiRQG

      2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
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    8. Mark Vletter  📲‏ @MarkV 30 Dec 2017
      Replying to @thijsniks

      Netherlands also has more bikes then people. 60% of primary transportation is by bike in a city like Groningen. Bikes are also going electric which means bigger distances faster.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 31 Dec 2017
      Replying to @MarkV

      Thijs Niks Retweeted Thijs Niks

      Agreed. There is a scenario where electric bikes become the dominant form of transport in some cities. I pretty much expect rail transport to be replaced by a combination of electric bikes and carshttps://twitter.com/thijsniks/status/947115077169184769 …

      Thijs Niks added,

      Thijs Niks @thijsniks
      It’s also possible that electric bikes will ride the wave of technology improvements and become the commuting modality of choice, before electric cars get to do it.
      Show this thread
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Jim Hodapp‏ @jhodapp 2 Jan 2018
      Replying to @thijsniks @MarkV

      That would be a mistake to replace rail with AVs, rail is a more passively safe transit form while AVs are complex active systems with infinitely more complex ways of failing. This will always be true. We want efficient and as simple of transit systems as possible.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 2 Jan 2018
      Replying to @jhodapp @MarkV

      My expectation is that we will be able to bring down the self-driving car safety incident rate down far enough that people consider it worth it. The current rate is rather dismal and plenty of us are ok with that. All these personal decisions are risk/reward balances.

      7:26 AM - 2 Jan 2018
      • 1 Like
      • Jim Hodapp
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Jim Hodapp‏ @jhodapp 2 Jan 2018
          Replying to @thijsniks @MarkV

          Agreed here as well. But again I’d like to see cities built so that you don’t need much more than a bike to get to something “far” away. The more walkable a place the more human and social it is.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 2 Jan 2018
          Replying to @jhodapp @MarkV

          Thijs Niks Retweeted Thijs Niks

          100% agreed. Optimizing cities for biking would be a huge win. I love my current bike commute in Amsterdam. I also realize there will remain a significant percentage of people who need something else.https://twitter.com/ThijsNiks/status/947113984536272898 …

          Thijs Niks added,

          Thijs Niks @thijsniks
          In the Netherlands, 10% of commuters take public transport and 50% go by car. In the United Kingdom, 15% go by train/bus and 70% by car. Roads will have to support 20% more cars if everyone would switch. pic.twitter.com/L5bi0iiRQG
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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