At $50k per car (double the current average purchase price), the manual to autonomous transition would cost $900 billion. For America alone. That’s twice the cost of building the United States interstate highway system.pic.twitter.com/jnUZ3dk2Kh
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At $50k per car (double the current average purchase price), the manual to autonomous transition would cost $900 billion. For America alone. That’s twice the cost of building the United States interstate highway system.pic.twitter.com/jnUZ3dk2Kh
How to raise $900 billion to finance 18 million self-driving cars is almost a bigger challenge than manufacturing them. Luckily, there are already organizations which specialize in this: Leasing companies.
Leasing companies are specialized in raising capital and using that to generate a steady revenue stream. There is little difference for them between consumers or sharing platforms paying for a car.
With car sharing, riders care more about price and availability than which car they get. And once these personal preferences no longer matter, leasing companies will optimize for total cost of ownership. Expect cars which are easier to maintain, clean, and repair.
My only thought on this is that leasing/platforms will still differentiate on brand, i.e. people will pay a premium transport cost for a "premium" transport experience... What does "first class" in an autonomous car transport platform look like? Better seats/WiFi/design etc?
Sharing platforms will continue to offer different tiers of service, but you would be surprised at how much more important price is over experience.pic.twitter.com/kx4tg9lAP6
I agree that mass market operators will be like public transport, but if I can afford to own, drive and park my Land Rover in central London (I can't, to be clear, but some can), I'm not going to give up my land rover for a public transport style experience...
True. Fewer people will own a private car, but it won’t go away. There will always be people who are happy to put up with the inefficiency.
That’s ok though. I care less about the high end of the market and more about providing better transport access to the low end.
Completely, that's the main benefit this paradigm shift can bring! I just think that a complete shift to utility based vehicle design probably won't happen... It'll be more like rental cars perhaps in terms of split maybe?
I expect the far majority of car sales to be for shared fleets and thus utilitarian. The rental market dynamics are very different, because they still need the safety features and the one-off use cases make it a special occasion to “try something fancy.”
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