What will road transport look like in the future? A speculative thread of personal thoughts. Hint: The opposite of this picture.pic.twitter.com/PggWKDrF8m
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Agreed there are no silver bullets. I’m excited about an electric bikes/self-driving car future though. Expect it will replace the bus use case and will be competitive with much of tram/metro in most cities.
That’s perhaps the other thing: I suspect only true metropoles probably run out of absolute space downtown, but that’s something I should verify
Also: You should reply to your own tweets, so it becomes an actual thread. Your first 3 points are now lost to the timeline
pic.twitter.com/dHAnyrzvNw
I don’t agree. I think it really just represents mobility FREEDOM. People still have their preferences and there are use cases when each do best. • Bikes aren’t great in rain. • Cars are slower than trains for many trip pairs • I honestly expect road speeds to DECREASE
...unless congestion pricing is added, in which case they will improve ONLY because transit cost differential is even more favorable, but it will cause better service to those that ride AVs (and demand better service from transit due to volume there).
The other thing that you don’t account for is the issue already plaguing Uber: the issue of the empty car or non-pool ride. It’s already making traffic worse in cities than before (even in Seattle where transit has grown too). When it’s cheaper, this problem increases.
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