It’s clear human driven cars will disappear from the roads over time. They will likely go the way of horses: Rich people toys with limited access to public roads and expensive to insure.
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We are far in enough to do another recap: (1) 50% of the road will be digital. (2) Each car will make decisions on its own, as an integrated system will be too slow (to build). (3) Regulation will be slow and then rapid, as countries compete. […]
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[…] (4) Highway trucks will be the first autonomous vehicles. (5) Cars will outcompete rail transport on existing road capacity. (6) Carpooling will increase and car interiors will look like public transport. (7) Pricing will drive parking spaces to outside the city.
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I’m excited about what the future brings. Cheap, safe, and clean transport is a win for us all and self-driving electric cars seem the closest we will get to that. This will be the biggest change in transport since trains (1810), safety bikes (1885), and manual cars (1910).
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There are obviously (potential) flaws in this scenario. For one, the shared fleets need to be 99.9999% reliable for people to actually give up their cars.
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Another potential flaw is that battery technology improvements won’t keep pace with what we need. Or computers might not get to the point where they can truly react safely to all forms of traffic.
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It’s also possible that electric bikes will ride the wave of technology improvements and become the commuting modality of choice, before electric cars get to do it.
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End of the thread, for now. To be continued.pic.twitter.com/KOFO6PmmaY
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Replying to @thijsniks
Zo. Indrukwekkend betoog! Ik mis de psychologie nog. In Kopenhagen rijden bestuurderloze metro’s. Maar elders is dat nog no go. En de mens die zijn auto als persoonlijke opslag, prullenmand en rugzak gebruikt? De kinderwagen in bewaart? Hoe verandert dat?
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Replying to @hotzki
Bestuurderloze metro’s worden niet meer gebouwd vanwege de kosten, niet de psychologie. Zelfde met zelfrijdende auto’s: zodra de prijs laag genoeg is, gaan mensen het gebruiken
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Geldt ook voor de persoonlijke opslag: dat is geen primaire behoefte. Prijs en gemak wel, dus gedrag zal zich aanpassen.
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