The transport of choice for commuting changes dramatically if you look at cities instead of countries. In New York City, 60% go by public transport and 30% by car. In London, 50% take public transport and 30% go by car.pic.twitter.com/nq9BdZhnDo
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We are far in enough to do another recap: (1) 50% of the road will be digital. (2) Each car will make decisions on its own, as an integrated system will be too slow (to build). (3) Regulation will be slow and then rapid, as countries compete. […]
[…] (4) Highway trucks will be the first autonomous vehicles. (5) Cars will outcompete rail transport on existing road capacity. (6) Carpooling will increase and car interiors will look like public transport. (7) Pricing will drive parking spaces to outside the city.
I’m excited about what the future brings. Cheap, safe, and clean transport is a win for us all and self-driving electric cars seem the closest we will get to that. This will be the biggest change in transport since trains (1810), safety bikes (1885), and manual cars (1910).
There are obviously (potential) flaws in this scenario. For one, the shared fleets need to be 99.9999% reliable for people to actually give up their cars.
Another potential flaw is that battery technology improvements won’t keep pace with what we need. Or computers might not get to the point where they can truly react safely to all forms of traffic.
It’s also possible that electric bikes will ride the wave of technology improvements and become the commuting modality of choice, before electric cars get to do it.
Nice to see that this transport thread reached more people than I expected. 70k saw it, 5500 started reading, 4000 made it till Twitter’s thread loader (70%), and 1500 read the whole thing (25%).pic.twitter.com/exdVIsWAGr
Someone tipped me the @EconTalker podcast with @BenedictEvans http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2017/08/benedict_evans.html … which builds on his article https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/3/20/cars-and-second-order-consequences … and covers many of the same self-driving vehicle issues
Bonus: How United States road maps were kept up to date in the 1940shttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHc6J1zKivk …
We are getting closer to a future of self-driving cars optimized for public sharing, as I laid out in the thread abovehttps://twitter.com/cruise/status/1219789539373268992 …
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