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Thijs Niks
Thijs Niks
Thijs Niks
@thijsniks

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Thijs Niks

@thijsniks

Product Manager for ☎️ at @WhatsApp / ❤️ retweets

San Francisco, CA
thijs.niks.nu
Joined February 2009

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    1. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      This does bring us to the point of regulation. Many observers point out that it might be the single largest stumbling block for full autonomy, though I’m hopeful.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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    2. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      People and companies in your place will see the personal benefits of self-driving cars once a neighboring city, state, or country allows for it. That creates competitive pressure to update regulation. Governments are slow, but this will move faster than you think.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    3. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      Governments will want to certify that self-driving cars are “safe,” which honestly will be an industry itself. Most of these cars will use some form of machine learning, so we likely need simulations as opposed to formal verification.

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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    4. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      Once regulation is adjusted, there will be a transition phase with mixed manual/self-driving traffic. This will make self-driving look worse than it really is, because the manual traffic is less predictable. We honestly can’t do much about it (see investments needed above).

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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    5. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      Trucks will be the first ones to go autonomous, because their usage can be limited to the relatively easy confines of highways and companies are willing to put up with those limitations.pic.twitter.com/C0QdEUyOpf

      1 reply 2 retweets 4 likes
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    6. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      Picture container depots at city edges and self-driving trucks shuttling between them. An extension of what’s already happening in ports.pic.twitter.com/RIXY8Mj6We

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
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    7. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      Over time, cars will be able to navigate the more complicated inner cities with their pedestrians, bikes, and other traffic. This is where things will get really interesting.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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    8. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      For one, more people will start using cars for trips than ever before, as the price will be low compared to other transport modes. We will run headlong into the Jevons paradox of improved efficiency causing usage increase. (Which makes the above $900b investment conservative)pic.twitter.com/cYY7MynviU

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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    9. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      A big turning point will be once self-driving cars are cheaper than mass rail transport (tram, metro, train). The average per mile cost in the UK is £0.31 for cars vs £0.16 for trains now, so we need a 50% drop.

      2 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
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    10. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      In the Netherlands, 10% of commuters take public transport and 50% go by car. In the United Kingdom, 15% go by train/bus and 70% by car. Roads will have to support 20% more cars if everyone would switch.pic.twitter.com/L5bi0iiRQG

      2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
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      Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      The transport of choice for commuting changes dramatically if you look at cities instead of countries. In New York City, 60% go by public transport and 30% by car. In London, 50% take public transport and 30% go by car.pic.twitter.com/nq9BdZhnDo

      6:35 AM - 30 Dec 2017
      • 6 Retweets
      • 19 Likes
      • Christiaan vd Koppel Kevin Thurman Lun Esex Present Dog Aaron Robison Richard van Geilswyk Luke Brewster gosha 👻 of communism 🚩🏴 Traian Docolina
      2 replies 6 retweets 19 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Sharing platforms will likely get 30% of people to pool during peak hours through price incentives. Self-driving cars will also be able to drive much closer, more consistently, and faster. Which probably increases road throughput with another 50%.

          2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
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        3. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          The 30% carpooling and 50% road throughput increase should more than offset the 20% inter-city car usage increase. And cities will need a bit more work. Long live the roads we already have!pic.twitter.com/DSeBAEGwu2

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        4. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          The majority of public transport needs will be covered by car sharing platforms. Though there will still be a role for governments to incentivize coverage in low utilization/high-cost areas (i.e., rural).

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        5. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Car sharing platforms can cover off-peak hours with regular capacity, and peak hours through carpooling and supply positioning. Demand super peaks, like natural disaster evacuations, are a challenge though. Will that be solved through capacity redistribution between areas?

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        6. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Besides people switching from other modes of transport to cars, we will have new use cases for car transport. No more shuttling teenagers to football games. Elderly can see their grandchildren more often.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        7. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          It’s also a question what people will do during these autonomous trips. Current rail transport (tram, metro, train) is likely a good comparison — especially for carpool trips. Expect lots of smartphone usage.pic.twitter.com/gi9tnbaV0R

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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        8. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          As cars get smarter and accident rates go down, we will be able to get rid of airbags and seatbelts. This would completely open up in-car design and likely trend towards minimal and utilitarian furniture, as leasing companies optimize for cost.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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        9. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Current public transport is likely the closest comparison for future self-driving car interiors. Low-cost, easy to maintain, and space efficient. All the things fleet operators love.pic.twitter.com/YQl4bLckTJ

          Connexxion and NS online
          2 replies 16 retweets 31 likes
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        10. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Something else that will change: Self-driving cars don’t need parking spaces in urban areas. The cars will either be driving on the road or at the edge of the city for charging/cleanup.

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        11. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          It’s clear human driven cars will disappear from the roads over time. They will likely go the way of horses: Rich people toys with limited access to public roads and expensive to insure.

          2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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        12. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          We are far in enough to do another recap: (1) 50% of the road will be digital. (2) Each car will make decisions on its own, as an integrated system will be too slow (to build). (3) Regulation will be slow and then rapid, as countries compete. […]

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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        13. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          […] (4) Highway trucks will be the first autonomous vehicles. (5) Cars will outcompete rail transport on existing road capacity. (6) Carpooling will increase and car interiors will look like public transport. (7) Pricing will drive parking spaces to outside the city.

          1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
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        14. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          I’m excited about what the future brings. Cheap, safe, and clean transport is a win for us all and self-driving electric cars seem the closest we will get to that. This will be the biggest change in transport since trains (1810), safety bikes (1885), and manual cars (1910).

          1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
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        15. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          There are obviously (potential) flaws in this scenario. For one, the shared fleets need to be 99.9999% reliable for people to actually give up their cars.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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        16. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Another potential flaw is that battery technology improvements won’t keep pace with what we need. Or computers might not get to the point where they can truly react safely to all forms of traffic.

          1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
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        17. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          It’s also possible that electric bikes will ride the wave of technology improvements and become the commuting modality of choice, before electric cars get to do it.

          3 replies 5 retweets 26 likes
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        18. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          End of the thread, for now. To be continued.pic.twitter.com/KOFO6PmmaY

          15 replies 1 retweet 30 likes
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        19. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 1 Jan 2018

          Nice to see that this transport thread reached more people than I expected. 70k saw it, 5500 started reading, 4000 made it till Twitter’s thread loader (70%), and 1500 read the whole thing (25%).pic.twitter.com/exdVIsWAGr

          4 replies 0 retweets 22 likes
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        20. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 10 Jan 2018

          Someone tipped me the @EconTalker podcast with @BenedictEvans http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2017/08/benedict_evans.html … which builds on his article https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/3/20/cars-and-second-order-consequences … and covers many of the same self-driving vehicle issues

          1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
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        21. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 28 Jan 2018

          Bonus: How United States road maps were kept up to date in the 1940shttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHc6J1zKivk …

          3 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
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        22. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 21 Jan 2020

          Thijs Niks Retweeted cruise

          We are getting closer to a future of self-driving cars optimized for public sharing, as I laid out in the thread abovehttps://twitter.com/cruise/status/1219789539373268992 …

          Thijs Niks added,

          cruiseVerified account @Cruise
          Introducing the Cruise Origin. Self-Driven. All-Electric. Shared. http://getcruise.com/origin  pic.twitter.com/JtUGt20lK0
          0 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
          Show this thread
        23. End of conversation

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