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Thijs Niks
Thijs Niks
Thijs Niks
@thijsniks

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Thijs Niks

@thijsniks

Product Manager for ☎️ at @WhatsApp / ❤️ retweets

San Francisco, CA
thijs.niks.nu
Joined February 2009

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    1. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      Self-driving cars will be safer, can go faster, drive closer to other cars, optimize fuel usage better, free up parking space in the city, and free up time compared to human-controlled cars.

      1 reply 1 retweet 10 likes
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    2. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      “Software is eating the world“ (Marc Andreessen) and self-driving cars are a perfect example of that. Much of what will make a future car successful will be determined by how good the software is and the software companies of the world have noticed.

      1 reply 2 retweets 13 likes
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    3. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      The software companies’ bet is that the value in the production chain will shift from manufacturing metal boxes to building software systems. Transport is a much larger business than phones (Apple) or advertising (Google).pic.twitter.com/tHzks8mLay

      3 replies 2 retweets 19 likes
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    4. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      Who will own these self-driving, electric cars? If you own one personally, it could drive you to work and back. A great experience, but parking it during the night and day is inefficient. The car could drive around other people during the 95% of the time you don’t use it.

      1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
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    5. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      The trouble is: What if you decide to go home unexpectedly and the car is on the other side of town? Either your car is never allowed to go far away (inefficient) or you will end up taking another self-driving car. So why would you own one yourself in the first place then?

      1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
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    6. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      Once you don’t drive in your own car anymore, you need access to a generic one anytime anywhere. That is the service car sharing platforms, like Uber, provide. They figure out how many people need a car when and where, and ensure there are enough cars to match it affordably.pic.twitter.com/RvfQVATj9A

      1 reply 2 retweets 13 likes
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    7. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      That still doesn’t answer the question who owns the car. One option is that private people invest in a self-driving car and make it available on these sharing platforms. Who maintains and cleans those cars though?

      3 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
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    8. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      Another option is that manufacturers or sharing platforms will own the cars, but it gets expensive fast. There are 260 million registered cars in the United States. If self-driving and sharing increases utilization from 5% to 75%, you need 18 million cars for the same usage.

      3 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
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    9. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      At $50k per car (double the current average purchase price), the manual to autonomous transition would cost $900 billion. For America alone. That’s twice the cost of building the United States interstate highway system.pic.twitter.com/jnUZ3dk2Kh

      1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
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    10. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      How to raise $900 billion to finance 18 million self-driving cars is almost a bigger challenge than manufacturing them. Luckily, there are already organizations which specialize in this: Leasing companies.

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
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      Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      Leasing companies are specialized in raising capital and using that to generate a steady revenue stream. There is little difference for them between consumers or sharing platforms paying for a car.

      6:18 AM - 30 Dec 2017
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      2 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
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        2. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          With car sharing, riders care more about price and availability than which car they get. And once these personal preferences no longer matter, leasing companies will optimize for total cost of ownership. Expect cars which are easier to maintain, clean, and repair.

          3 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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        3. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          A healthy marketplace will have several sharing platforms and several fleet owners compete for the rider’s business.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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        4. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          All of this will be a quadruple hit to the fancy car manufacturers of this world: (1) From gasoline to electric wipes out the engine and drive train competences. (2) From manual-driving to self-driving replaces mechanical expertise with software knowledge. […]

          1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
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        5. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          […] (3) From status objects to shared vehicles removes the brand advantage. (4) From personal ownership to shared fleets undoes the dealer sales network. This pretty much just leaves them with their manufacturing capability (which we shouldn’t underestimate).

          1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
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        6. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Let’s pause for a moment and recap what we have so far: (1) People want cheaper, faster, and safer transport. (2) Self-driving, electric cars will outperform manual gasoline ones. […]

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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        7. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          […] (3) Sharing a self-driving car will be cheaper than owning one. (4) Leasing companies will own car fleets which will be available through sharing platforms. (5) It’s unlikely existing car brands will win the market in this new world.

          1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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        8. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Now that we have self-driving cars, what else will change? For one, the roads will be different. Once all cars are self-driving, we don’t need road signage or markings anymore. Traffic lights will be a thing of the past. Good digital maps are how self-driving cars navigate.pic.twitter.com/DnzbAhx7c5

          6 replies 1 retweet 16 likes
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        9. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          As time progresses, governments will understand that building a road is half their job and publishing live data about it the other half. Access to the location, condition, utilization, and speed limits of each road in the past, present, and future will be baseline expectation.pic.twitter.com/W3fqaV88MP

          2 replies 6 retweets 17 likes
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        10. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Cars will use cameras, lidar, and radar to see the next 200m, but need external information to know what is happening kilometers away. Road owners can provide this by using phone triangulation and video detection.pic.twitter.com/29SgbRBwO2

          2 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
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        11. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Cars will also need to know what other cars are doing and intending to do. This requires a communication channel (like Wifi-P) and information standard (yet to be defined).

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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        12. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          My bet is on 1-way (think UDP), as opposed to 2-way (like TCP), data transfer between vehicles as well as with the road. No manufacturer wants a crash “because the road didn’t respond” or “the other car gave me the wrong information.” Cars need to be as independent as possible.pic.twitter.com/TKgnIbhzN5

          1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
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        13. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          On-demand cars on smart roads also means every person’s trip history will be stored, for as much as sharing platforms require identification.

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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        14. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          These self-driving cars will also religiously follow traffic rules, as it will speed up the overall system and governments will make it part of their certification process.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        15. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          No need to speed anyway, as self-driving cars react faster than humans and can thus go faster.pic.twitter.com/r28cPHdkz2

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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        16. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          This does bring us to the point of regulation. Many observers point out that it might be the single largest stumbling block for full autonomy, though I’m hopeful.

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        17. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          People and companies in your place will see the personal benefits of self-driving cars once a neighboring city, state, or country allows for it. That creates competitive pressure to update regulation. Governments are slow, but this will move faster than you think.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        18. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Governments will want to certify that self-driving cars are “safe,” which honestly will be an industry itself. Most of these cars will use some form of machine learning, so we likely need simulations as opposed to formal verification.

          1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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        19. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Once regulation is adjusted, there will be a transition phase with mixed manual/self-driving traffic. This will make self-driving look worse than it really is, because the manual traffic is less predictable. We honestly can’t do much about it (see investments needed above).

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        20. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Trucks will be the first ones to go autonomous, because their usage can be limited to the relatively easy confines of highways and companies are willing to put up with those limitations.pic.twitter.com/C0QdEUyOpf

          1 reply 2 retweets 4 likes
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        21. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Picture container depots at city edges and self-driving trucks shuttling between them. An extension of what’s already happening in ports.pic.twitter.com/RIXY8Mj6We

          1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
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        22. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Over time, cars will be able to navigate the more complicated inner cities with their pedestrians, bikes, and other traffic. This is where things will get really interesting.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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        23. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          For one, more people will start using cars for trips than ever before, as the price will be low compared to other transport modes. We will run headlong into the Jevons paradox of improved efficiency causing usage increase. (Which makes the above $900b investment conservative)pic.twitter.com/cYY7MynviU

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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        24. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          A big turning point will be once self-driving cars are cheaper than mass rail transport (tram, metro, train). The average per mile cost in the UK is £0.31 for cars vs £0.16 for trains now, so we need a 50% drop.

          2 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
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        25. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          In the Netherlands, 10% of commuters take public transport and 50% go by car. In the United Kingdom, 15% go by train/bus and 70% by car. Roads will have to support 20% more cars if everyone would switch.pic.twitter.com/L5bi0iiRQG

          2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
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        26. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          The transport of choice for commuting changes dramatically if you look at cities instead of countries. In New York City, 60% go by public transport and 30% by car. In London, 50% take public transport and 30% go by car.pic.twitter.com/nq9BdZhnDo

          2 replies 6 retweets 19 likes
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        27. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Sharing platforms will likely get 30% of people to pool during peak hours through price incentives. Self-driving cars will also be able to drive much closer, more consistently, and faster. Which probably increases road throughput with another 50%.

          2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
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        28. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          The 30% carpooling and 50% road throughput increase should more than offset the 20% inter-city car usage increase. And cities will need a bit more work. Long live the roads we already have!pic.twitter.com/DSeBAEGwu2

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        29. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          The majority of public transport needs will be covered by car sharing platforms. Though there will still be a role for governments to incentivize coverage in low utilization/high-cost areas (i.e., rural).

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        30. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Car sharing platforms can cover off-peak hours with regular capacity, and peak hours through carpooling and supply positioning. Demand super peaks, like natural disaster evacuations, are a challenge though. Will that be solved through capacity redistribution between areas?

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        31. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Besides people switching from other modes of transport to cars, we will have new use cases for car transport. No more shuttling teenagers to football games. Elderly can see their grandchildren more often.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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