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Thijs Niks
Thijs Niks
Thijs Niks
@thijsniks

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Thijs Niks

@thijsniks

Product Manager for ☎️ at @WhatsApp / ❤️ retweets

San Francisco, CA
thijs.niks.nu
Joined February 2009

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    1. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      What will road transport look like in the future? A speculative thread of personal thoughts. Hint: The opposite of this picture.pic.twitter.com/PggWKDrF8m

      30 replies 149 retweets 355 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      I like Jeff Bezos’ approach of asking “What’s not going to change in the coming years?” So let’s start with that.pic.twitter.com/z8fyO1SsHh

      1 reply 0 retweets 25 likes
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    3. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      People want transport to be: Cheaper Faster More reliable Safer Door-to-door Private Less polluting (In assumed order of importance)

      3 replies 2 retweets 13 likes
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      Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

      Combined with tech trends: Electric motors will develop faster than gasoline ones. Batteries will store more power & become cheaper. Computers will be faster, smaller & cheaper. Cameras will be better, smaller & cheaper. Connectivity will be faster, cheaper & wide-spread.pic.twitter.com/BKdBx07bo8

      6:11 AM - 30 Dec 2017
      • 5 Retweets
      • 15 Likes
      • #lifeiskool Alexandria Procter valerie veteto andrew furman 🏥🛡 Aashay Mody Oscar Jack Rogers RBM bryan chang
      1 reply 5 retweets 15 likes
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        2. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          See the keywords there? Faster and cheaper. Much of it driven by the production scale of smartphones. It’s good to keep in mind William Gibson’s advice about this all: “The future is already here — it’s just not very evenly distributed.”pic.twitter.com/V2CYERgySz

          1 reply 3 retweets 38 likes
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        3. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Many of these wants and trends point to a clear direction: Self-driving, electric cars. For the sake of this discussion, we will assume full autonomy (level 5).pic.twitter.com/ChDIPMD0jC

          1 reply 2 retweets 20 likes
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        4. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Nobody agrees on a timeline yet, but the benefits of self-driving cars are obvious and the investments serious. These will be a thing. Well, maybe not the Google pods.pic.twitter.com/8x2MMlxgMQ

          1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
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        5. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Electric cars have fewer moving parts, are more flexible as they are fully software-controlled, quieter, and more fuel cost efficient compared to gasoline cars.pic.twitter.com/67pXIefcSf

          1 reply 2 retweets 9 likes
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        6. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Self-driving cars will be safer, can go faster, drive closer to other cars, optimize fuel usage better, free up parking space in the city, and free up time compared to human-controlled cars.

          1 reply 1 retweet 10 likes
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        7. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          “Software is eating the world“ (Marc Andreessen) and self-driving cars are a perfect example of that. Much of what will make a future car successful will be determined by how good the software is and the software companies of the world have noticed.

          1 reply 2 retweets 13 likes
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        8. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          The software companies’ bet is that the value in the production chain will shift from manufacturing metal boxes to building software systems. Transport is a much larger business than phones (Apple) or advertising (Google).pic.twitter.com/tHzks8mLay

          3 replies 2 retweets 19 likes
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        9. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Who will own these self-driving, electric cars? If you own one personally, it could drive you to work and back. A great experience, but parking it during the night and day is inefficient. The car could drive around other people during the 95% of the time you don’t use it.

          1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
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        10. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          The trouble is: What if you decide to go home unexpectedly and the car is on the other side of town? Either your car is never allowed to go far away (inefficient) or you will end up taking another self-driving car. So why would you own one yourself in the first place then?

          1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
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        11. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Once you don’t drive in your own car anymore, you need access to a generic one anytime anywhere. That is the service car sharing platforms, like Uber, provide. They figure out how many people need a car when and where, and ensure there are enough cars to match it affordably.pic.twitter.com/RvfQVATj9A

          1 reply 2 retweets 13 likes
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        12. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          That still doesn’t answer the question who owns the car. One option is that private people invest in a self-driving car and make it available on these sharing platforms. Who maintains and cleans those cars though?

          3 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
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        13. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Another option is that manufacturers or sharing platforms will own the cars, but it gets expensive fast. There are 260 million registered cars in the United States. If self-driving and sharing increases utilization from 5% to 75%, you need 18 million cars for the same usage.

          3 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
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        14. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          At $50k per car (double the current average purchase price), the manual to autonomous transition would cost $900 billion. For America alone. That’s twice the cost of building the United States interstate highway system.pic.twitter.com/jnUZ3dk2Kh

          1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
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        15. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          How to raise $900 billion to finance 18 million self-driving cars is almost a bigger challenge than manufacturing them. Luckily, there are already organizations which specialize in this: Leasing companies.

          1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
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        16. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Leasing companies are specialized in raising capital and using that to generate a steady revenue stream. There is little difference for them between consumers or sharing platforms paying for a car.

          2 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
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        17. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          With car sharing, riders care more about price and availability than which car they get. And once these personal preferences no longer matter, leasing companies will optimize for total cost of ownership. Expect cars which are easier to maintain, clean, and repair.

          3 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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        18. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          A healthy marketplace will have several sharing platforms and several fleet owners compete for the rider’s business.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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        19. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          All of this will be a quadruple hit to the fancy car manufacturers of this world: (1) From gasoline to electric wipes out the engine and drive train competences. (2) From manual-driving to self-driving replaces mechanical expertise with software knowledge. […]

          1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
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        20. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          […] (3) From status objects to shared vehicles removes the brand advantage. (4) From personal ownership to shared fleets undoes the dealer sales network. This pretty much just leaves them with their manufacturing capability (which we shouldn’t underestimate).

          1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
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        21. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Let’s pause for a moment and recap what we have so far: (1) People want cheaper, faster, and safer transport. (2) Self-driving, electric cars will outperform manual gasoline ones. […]

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
          Show this thread
        22. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          […] (3) Sharing a self-driving car will be cheaper than owning one. (4) Leasing companies will own car fleets which will be available through sharing platforms. (5) It’s unlikely existing car brands will win the market in this new world.

          1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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        23. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Now that we have self-driving cars, what else will change? For one, the roads will be different. Once all cars are self-driving, we don’t need road signage or markings anymore. Traffic lights will be a thing of the past. Good digital maps are how self-driving cars navigate.pic.twitter.com/DnzbAhx7c5

          6 replies 1 retweet 16 likes
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        24. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          As time progresses, governments will understand that building a road is half their job and publishing live data about it the other half. Access to the location, condition, utilization, and speed limits of each road in the past, present, and future will be baseline expectation.pic.twitter.com/W3fqaV88MP

          2 replies 6 retweets 17 likes
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        25. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Cars will use cameras, lidar, and radar to see the next 200m, but need external information to know what is happening kilometers away. Road owners can provide this by using phone triangulation and video detection.pic.twitter.com/29SgbRBwO2

          2 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
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        26. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          Cars will also need to know what other cars are doing and intending to do. This requires a communication channel (like Wifi-P) and information standard (yet to be defined).

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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        27. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          My bet is on 1-way (think UDP), as opposed to 2-way (like TCP), data transfer between vehicles as well as with the road. No manufacturer wants a crash “because the road didn’t respond” or “the other car gave me the wrong information.” Cars need to be as independent as possible.pic.twitter.com/TKgnIbhzN5

          1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
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        28. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          On-demand cars on smart roads also means every person’s trip history will be stored, for as much as sharing platforms require identification.

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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        29. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          These self-driving cars will also religiously follow traffic rules, as it will speed up the overall system and governments will make it part of their certification process.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        30. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          No need to speed anyway, as self-driving cars react faster than humans and can thus go faster.pic.twitter.com/r28cPHdkz2

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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        31. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 30 Dec 2017

          This does bring us to the point of regulation. Many observers point out that it might be the single largest stumbling block for full autonomy, though I’m hopeful.

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        32. Show replies

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