Over the last two weeks, I created a model that attempts to track and forecast COVID19. After sharing it privately, I decided it's worth sharing more publicly. I'll be posting more thoughts in the coming days. http://systrom.com/blog/predicting-coronavirus-cases/ …
Hey Kevin, You write “The best estimates of IFR (infection fatality ratio), are around 2%” and link to https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387 … Fauci et al say: “the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%” Could it be that you mixed up IFR and CFR?
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The best source I found for case detection rate is Li et al: “We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions” https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/24/science.abb3221.full … That would roughly make it: 2% CFR / (100%/(100% − 86%)) = 0,28% IFR
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