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thijsniks's profile
Thijs Niks
Thijs Niks
Thijs Niks
@thijsniks

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Thijs Niks

@thijsniks

Product Manager for ☎️ at @WhatsApp / ❤️ retweets

San Francisco, CA
thijs.niks.nu
Joined February 2009

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    1. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 23 Mar 2020

      RIVM lijkt nog steeds in te zetten op groepsimmuniteit: “Een volledig verbod om de straat op te gaan, heeft geen meerwaarde. Weliswaar kan het nieuwe coronavirus zich dan nog minder gemakkelijk verspreiden, maar ook niemand bouwt dan immuniteit op” https://www.rivm.nl/coronavirus/covid-19/vragen-antwoorden …pic.twitter.com/Um6wSCDbGw

      8 replies 11 retweets 16 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Jaap Stronks‏ @jaapstronks 23 Mar 2020
      Replying to @thijsniks

      Wat is ook alweer de bandbreedte van het verwachte dodenaantal?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. Jaap Stronks‏ @jaapstronks 23 Mar 2020
      Replying to @jaapstronks @thijsniks

      Ik moet iig hoognodig een rondje gaan bellen. Want 100 duizend doden is geen rare schatting.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 23 Mar 2020
      Replying to @jaapstronks

      In Nieuwsuur ging het over 40.000 tot 80.000 doden. Osterhaus komt uit op 50.000 tot 100.000 doden. Ongeveer die orde van grootte als groepsimmuniteit nastreeft.

      2 replies 3 retweets 1 like
    5. CoronawatchNL‏ @CoronawatchNL 23 Mar 2020
      Replying to @thijsniks @jaapstronks

      Groepsimmuniteit ontstaat bij minimaal 60 procent besmetting, maar sommige studies spreken van > 70 procent bij Sars-CoV2. Bij mortaliteit van 1% (lage schatting) is de som (inwoners*0.6)*0.01. Dat betekent 102.000 doden.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 23 Mar 2020
      Replying to @CoronawatchNL @jaapstronks

      De CFR is 1%, maar de IFR eerder 0,2%. Dus eerder inwoners * 60% * 0,2%. Al vermenigvuldigd dat wel op het moment dat je met groepsimmuniteit de zorgcapaciteit overspoeld.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Global Green Deal‏ @GlobalGreenDeal 23 Mar 2020
      Replying to @thijsniks @jaapstronks

      Kan ook nog iets van 0,3 of nog wat meer blijken te zijn, maar terechte nuancering. En idd wordt dat slechter bij overschrijden zorgcapaciteit, _wat nu al gebeurt en *hopelijk* kan worden bijgelapt_; dus RIVM _heeft_ al gefaald; snoeien in reguliere zorg gaat ook doden geven.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Global Green Deal‏ @GlobalGreenDeal 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GlobalGreenDeal @thijsniks @jaapstronks

      Global Green Deal Retweeted Global Green Deal

      Als dit waar zou zijn... (eerst zien, dan geloven natuurlijk)https://twitter.com/GlobalGreenDeal/status/1242569424537899009 …

      Global Green Deal added,

      Global Green Deal @GlobalGreenDeal
      Wow, let's hope this is spot-on! "#Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study" https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b … 'If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected...become ill enough to need hospital treatment'
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Global Green Deal‏ @GlobalGreenDeal 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GlobalGreenDeal @thijsniks @jaapstronks

      Zie ook dit artikel erover: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @GlobalGreenDeal @jaapstronks

      Dit staat zo lijnrecht tegenover de andere (peer reviewed) artikelen die we hebben, dat het me zou verbazen. Verder lijkt mij dat het percentage positieve PCR tests te laag is hiervoor. Maar ik hoop natuurlijk dat het waar is!

      3:44 PM - 24 Mar 2020
      • 1 Like
      • CoronawatchNL
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Global Green Deal‏ @GlobalGreenDeal 24 Mar 2020
          Replying to @thijsniks @jaapstronks

          Global Green Deal Retweeted Global Green Deal

          Ik deel je pessimisme én je hoop :-) En een van de betrokken wetenschappers lijkt te stellen dat het meer een soort theoretische exercitie is en zeker geen voorspelling. Hier stel ik hem een vraag daarover (zal wel geen antwoord krijgen):https://twitter.com/GlobalGreenDeal/status/1242580983884517376 …

          Global Green Deal added,

          Global Green Deal @GlobalGreenDeal
          Replying to @LourencoJML @PlaceHorse and 5 others
          Okay no prediction. But is your hypothesis that half of the (UK) population has or has had the virus? If not, you must be very unhappy with how it is understood in the media. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html …
          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Global Green Deal‏ @GlobalGreenDeal 24 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GlobalGreenDeal @thijsniks @jaapstronks

          Global Green Deal Retweeted Sunetra Gupta

          Voor de volledigheid hier even apart de hele discussie:https://twitter.com/SunetraGupta/status/1242403091569348608 …

          Global Green Deal added,

          Sunetra Gupta @SunetraGupta
          Finally breaking my twitter silence with this: https://twitter.com/EEID_oxford/status/1242402762283012096 …
          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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