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thijsniks's profile
Thijs Niks
Thijs Niks
Thijs Niks
@thijsniks

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Thijs Niks

@thijsniks

Product Manager for ☎️ at @WhatsApp / ❤️ retweets

San Francisco, CA
thijs.niks.nu
Joined February 2009

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    1. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 23 Mar 2020

      RIVM lijkt nog steeds in te zetten op groepsimmuniteit: “Een volledig verbod om de straat op te gaan, heeft geen meerwaarde. Weliswaar kan het nieuwe coronavirus zich dan nog minder gemakkelijk verspreiden, maar ook niemand bouwt dan immuniteit op” https://www.rivm.nl/coronavirus/covid-19/vragen-antwoorden …pic.twitter.com/Um6wSCDbGw

      8 replies 11 retweets 16 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Jaap Stronks‏ @jaapstronks 23 Mar 2020
      Replying to @thijsniks

      Wat is ook alweer de bandbreedte van het verwachte dodenaantal?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. Jaap Stronks‏ @jaapstronks 23 Mar 2020
      Replying to @jaapstronks @thijsniks

      Ik moet iig hoognodig een rondje gaan bellen. Want 100 duizend doden is geen rare schatting.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 23 Mar 2020
      Replying to @jaapstronks

      In Nieuwsuur ging het over 40.000 tot 80.000 doden. Osterhaus komt uit op 50.000 tot 100.000 doden. Ongeveer die orde van grootte als groepsimmuniteit nastreeft.

      2 replies 3 retweets 1 like
    5. CoronawatchNL‏ @CoronawatchNL 23 Mar 2020
      Replying to @thijsniks @jaapstronks

      Groepsimmuniteit ontstaat bij minimaal 60 procent besmetting, maar sommige studies spreken van > 70 procent bij Sars-CoV2. Bij mortaliteit van 1% (lage schatting) is de som (inwoners*0.6)*0.01. Dat betekent 102.000 doden.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 23 Mar 2020
      Replying to @CoronawatchNL @jaapstronks

      De CFR is 1%, maar de IFR eerder 0,2%. Dus eerder inwoners * 60% * 0,2%. Al vermenigvuldigd dat wel op het moment dat je met groepsimmuniteit de zorgcapaciteit overspoeld.

      1:04 PM - 23 Mar 2020
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. CoronawatchNL‏ @CoronawatchNL 23 Mar 2020
          Replying to @thijsniks @jaapstronks

          Jep, de zorg kan zoveel gevallen tegelijkertijd nooit aan. Dus de fataliteitsratio is dan echt wel hoger dan 1 procent. Ben wel benieuwd waar jij 0.2 procent vandaan haalt overigens?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Thijs Niks‏ @thijsniks 23 Mar 2020
          Replying to @CoronawatchNL @jaapstronks

          1% CFR * 14% detectie https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221.full …

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Global Green Deal‏ @GlobalGreenDeal 23 Mar 2020
          Replying to @thijsniks @jaapstronks

          Kan ook nog iets van 0,3 of nog wat meer blijken te zijn, maar terechte nuancering. En idd wordt dat slechter bij overschrijden zorgcapaciteit, _wat nu al gebeurt en *hopelijk* kan worden bijgelapt_; dus RIVM _heeft_ al gefaald; snoeien in reguliere zorg gaat ook doden geven.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Global Green Deal‏ @GlobalGreenDeal 24 Mar 2020
          Replying to @GlobalGreenDeal @thijsniks @jaapstronks

          Global Green Deal Retweeted Global Green Deal

          Als dit waar zou zijn... (eerst zien, dan geloven natuurlijk)https://twitter.com/GlobalGreenDeal/status/1242569424537899009 …

          Global Green Deal added,

          Global Green Deal @GlobalGreenDeal
          Wow, let's hope this is spot-on! "#Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study" https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b … 'If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected...become ill enough to need hospital treatment'
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          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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